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Weather Eye: heading for a fairly typical July

After the wishy-washy weather of June, with plenty of rain and average temperatures, what could July bring?

It looks as though it will be a fairly typical July of warm sunny spells and some big hefty showers. Perhaps that is no great surprise, because July was named after Julius Caesar, and the weather often takes after him — grand and imposing. This is often the hottest month of the year but it comes at a price, because the rainfall tends to be heavy, the air is humid and the hours of sunshine start to dip downwards.

Those wetter conditions often come from the rising temperatures. The ground heats up and launches parcels of warm air rising like hot air balloons. As the warm air cools off high in the sky, its moisture condenses into big beefy cumulus clouds that drop big showers.

If we’re lucky, fine summer comes when a big finger of high pressure pushes up from the sub-tropical Azores and keeps the UK warm, but not too hot, with gentle dry breezes. But it doesn’t usually last long, and even the hottest Julys have spells of cooler, cloudier weather.

In the worst cases, July can turn into a washout — worst of all was the calamitous July of 2007 when half the UK looked like a big lake, with Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire, marooned and much of Hull submerged.

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Perhaps most shocking of all is when July’s weather is cold. Temperatures at night can sometimes dip close to freezing, and frosts can strike even in the South of England. There are even records of snow in July. These are usually cases of mistaken identity, when soft wet hail looks like snow. But in July 1888 proper snow fell thickly across many hills in the UK, and visitors to the Royal Agricultural Show in Nottingham were left shivering. The Times reported: “While the day before the crowds were in the lightest of summer clothing, they were to be found yesterday shivering in overcoats. On the Mansfield Hills, near the show, there was a heavy fall of snow about 4am yesterday morning.”