Today’s final has given us two players who like to attack. Neither Maria Sharapova nor Petra Kvitova are great defenders, so it will be a very aggressive final and, I’m hoping, an enthralling one.
I would put Sharapova’s chances at 60-40 to win her second Wimbledon title. But Kvitova has some fantastic weaponry. Her serve is so effective because she can put a lot of spin on it and really slice it out wide, she can hit the hard, flat serve and she has a second serve that wins her some free points and is pretty hard to attack. Overall, her serve is fun to watch; it has a smooth, fluid motion. You hardly ever see a lefty with a bad serve, but Kvitova’s is outstanding.
There are no other really good lefties on tour, so it will be hard for Sharapova to cope with it — she simply doesn’t face one like it too often.
There are parallels between Kvitova and myself. She is also from the Czech Republic, we are both lefties, she is 21 and I was 21 when I first won at Wimbledon. But it is so long ago, it was a different era. I was caught between countries, having only temporary residency in the United States, and I didn’t know if my parents were even watching the match.
I was thrilled to win the title but very lonely at the same time because I couldn’t share my achievement with my family. For Kvitova it is very different. She has a big entourage of supporters who are very vocal — a bit too vocal at times, in my opinion, something else that is different these days — and the whole of her country will be watching. So I’m a bit jealous of that, but most of all I’m extremely happy for her.
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Her coaches will have studied her opponent and they will want Kvitova to move Sharapova along the diagonal because she is so good at moving side to side. They will want Kvitova to mix the location of the serve and its speed. She can do that, but it is all about making the right choices at the right time.
And they will want her to keep the ball low because Sharapova’s ideal hitting zone is a little higher than most players. Kvitova needs to beat Sharapova to the punch and she will take the sort of risks with shots that we saw her take in her semi-final. That’s the way she plays. She has more variety to her game than Sharapova and the crowd will appreciate that, the way she moves forward and mixes it up a little more.
Having said that, it is hard to know who the crowd will get behind. Sharapova could be their favourite because it has been so long between finals for her, but they love their newcomers and their youngsters.
It is easier for a young player like Kvitova to enjoy the final. The older you get the more pressure you feel. You feel your time is running out and it all means so much more. The key for Kvitova is for her not to just be happy to have made it to the final — but she’s very competitive and intense, so she will want more, she will want to win.
Sharapova is a slow starter. She really got away with that in her semi-final. She can’t afford to lose a set — as she easily could have against Sabine Lisicki — so she needs to get off to a better start.
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She has some issues with her serve, and when your serve is not functioning it throws you — it is the shot you are supposed to control and it seems to be controlling her some of the time. But she has reached the final, so she can clearly control it enough. Kvitova has to pounce and exploit that minor weakness and get that break of serve if Sharapova produces a double fault or two. This could be the deciding factor in the match.
I think it will go to three sets and Sharapova has to have the slight edge if it does. If Kvitova can take advantage of Sharapova’s slow start — assuming she has another slow start — and take the first set, then she has a really good chance of winning the title. But if Sharapova wins the first set, the title will be hers for a second time. The Russian has been there before and will be less likely to back off towards the end.
So, who will take control of the match? I think the Czech lefty just might do it.