Has brexit turned (parts of) the North Tory?
Theresa May was persuaded to call a snap election after being shown analysis that suggested that some 60 constituencies won by Labour in 2015 were there for the taking. Typically they were seats where more than 60 per cent of voters had opted for Leave in last year’s EU referendum, with a slightly older demographic and with a relatively low proportion of voters from ethnic minorities. The local elections on May 4 delivered a degree of reassurance that the Conservatives were in play in many seats previously regarded as Labour heartlands.
Targets are concentrated in Yorkshire and the Humber, the northeast and the Midlands. Although Sunderland and Newcastle will give an early indication of the resilience of the Labour vote in this type of seat, Darlington, expected at 1.30am, will be the first test of whether Mrs May has persuaded enough voters to ditch their long-held affiliation. The next key Tory targets to watch will be Bury South and Hartlepool and a flurry of declarations at 3am should start giving a feel for whether the prime minister’s efforts to convert Labour Brexit voters have paid off.
Were you up when big name lost?
Most elections contain at least one unexpected humiliation for a well-known politician. While some major figure is cruising, blissfully unaware, towards an unpleasant encounter with the electorate, pundits will be talking up the chances of a surprise result at 2.30am in Hastings & Rye, the seat Amber Rudd, the home secretary who had a 4,796 majority over Labour, is hoping to hold; and at 4.30am, in Bolsover, where Dennis Skinner had a 11,778-strong advantage over the Tories in 2015.
Another seat that Conservative spin doctors highlight is being contested by Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader. He won West Bromwich East with a 9,470 majority in 2015 — uncomfortably close to the votes won then by Ukip, which is not standing this time. If it comes — and it’s a big if — it will be confirmed at about 3.30am. Other high- profile Labour politicians who may be in danger include Jess Phillips in Birmingham Yardley (5am) and Kate Hoey in Vauxhall (3.30am).
It was the kids wot won it (or not)
The participation of voters aged between 18 and 24 declined sharply after 1992 and never recovered for reasons much studied but still little understood. Most of the explanation for widely varying results from different opinion polls is linked to what assumptions they make about whether Jeremy Corbyn has reversed this trend. If the group of voters who say they most like the Labour leader don’t turn out in significantly higher numbers than in the past, Labour will face a drubbing. Tories who may be in trouble include Chloe Smith in Norwich North, a seat that students could turn red at about 5.30am, and Nicky Morgan, the former education secretary at Loughborough (5am).
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It’s not you Jeremy, it’s me
Some Labour candidates in the most marginal seats have distanced themselves from their leader, or even explicitly disowned him. By tomorrow we should be able to see whether candidates such as Ben Bradshaw in Exeter (3am), who has taken every opportunity to declare his record of opposition to the leadership, have outperformed fervent Corbyn supporters such as Cat Smith in Lancaster & Fleetwood (6am).
Tim Farron’s date with destiny
The Liberal Democrats are defending only nine seats but could make losses. The Tories have mounted a “decapitation strategy” in Westmorland & Lonsdale (3am) in a bid to oust Tim Farron, the party’s leader. Meanwhile Ukip’s decision not to stand in North Norfolk (5am) could mean the anti-EU party’s 8,328 voters at the last election swing to the Tories and topple Norman Lamb, who is defending a majority of 4,043. In Sheffield Hallam (4.30am) Nick Clegg is at risk from Labour, and in Carshalton & Wallington (4am) the high proportion of Leave voters could turn against Tom Brake, the Lib Dem. Sarah Olney, the Lib Dem candidate who beat Zac Goldsmith, then an independent, in a by-election last December, faces her old opponent again in Richmond Park (4am) but this time he has the Tory machine behind him again.
The Lib Dems could make gains too, particularly in London. Sir Vince Cable is fighting to make a comeback against the Tories in Twickenham (4am), as is Sir Ed Davey in Kingston & Surbiton (5am), and Sir Simon Hughes is challenging Labour for his old seat in Bermondsey & Old Southwark (4am). The party is also competitive in Tory-held Bath (4am), where 58 per cent of residents backed Remain.
Have we passed ‘peak nat’?
A striking degree of churn could occur in Scotland, where the Tories have attempted to position themselves as the primary Unionist option and have recorded a marked rise in those who intend to vote for them. If the Tories pick up seats, it will mark a turning point for the SNP from 2015, when Nicola Sturgeon’s party captured all but three Scottish constituencies. Scottish Labour has also enjoyed an upswing in the polls late in the campaign.
Among the biggest scalps the Tories could claim would be Angus Robertson, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, who is said to be in danger in his Moray seat (3am) despite defending a 9,065 majority. There is also talk of the Tories threatening Alex Salmond, the former Scottish Nationalist first minister, in Gordon (4am), though he, too, had a substantial majority, of 8,687, in 2015.
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Ian Murray, the only Labour MP in Scotland in the last parliament, is at risk of losing the affluent Edinburgh South (4am) seat to the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem candidate and former equalities minister who was ousted at the last election, could make a return to the Commons in East Dunbartonshire (3am), beating John Nicolson of the SNP.