Some very good Wales teams have been to Ireland and got hammered. Think, for example, of 2014, when a side captained by our very own Sam Warburton were thrashed 26-3. All the other legends of Wales’s golden generation were there that day — Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Jamie Roberts, Mike Phillips, Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones and Taulupe Faletau — yet they were completely outmuscled.
Even Wales’s previous Six Nations victory in Dublin, in 2012, was a last-gasp effort, with a Halfpenny penalty making it 23-21 — although it should be mentioned that the match in 2016 was drawn and Wales did win a World Cup warm-up game there in 2015.
But the easy gag to make right now would be that this is not a very good Wales side (they have lost nine of their past ten Six Nations matches) and therefore, up against an Ireland side that, despite not winning the World Cup, can rightly be regarded as the best side in the world right now, there can be only one result.
Ireland’s home record is quite astonishing, having won 38 of their past 40 Tests at the Aviva Stadium. Only England in 2019 and France in 2021 have checked the trend of unremitting excellence and success from the men in green.
This is surely mission impossible for Wales, and it would be easy to view Warren Gatland’s extraordinary attack on the Welsh regions on Thursday as a man getting his excuses in early, but it was no such thing. It was just some honest frustration spilling out when he was asked to compare rugby in Wales to rugby in Ireland. The latter has got everything right in a system that is totally geared up for the betterment of the national team, while the former — still mired in its petty parochialism — seems determined to make life as difficult as possible for the national head coach.
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“Sorry for that rant,” Gatland said with smile as he got up and left on Thursday, but he had made clear his pessimism at the Welsh game ever engaging in the “reset” so obviously needed.
There was no such pessimism about this Wales team, though. He has already said they will be “a bloody good team” eventually, and you can see what he is saying, because in truth they have surprised everyone in their first two matches.
They were shambolic in the first half against Scotland (but Wales always start slowly in campaigns and you can lay that blame at the door of the regions because players never appear anywhere near ready or fit enough for the step up to international level) and sluggish in the second half against England. But in the other two halves they were excellent, and two narrow defeats have been no disgrace.
Gatland revealed an interesting conversation he’d had with the England head coach, Steve Borthwick, after the 16-14 defeat at Twickenham. “They [England] are kind of in the same position,” he said. “When does he transition his players out who won’t be there for the next World Cup? We’ve made that decision already. Hopefully people can see what we’re trying to do. I’m really excited about this group of players and there’s a chance to really grow them for the long-term growth of international rugby in Wales.”
This is, indeed, all about the long-term for Gatland, which is why Mackenzie Martin, the young Cardiff No 8, will make his debut from the bench.
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“He’s as green as anything,” Gatland said. “He’s raw. He’s got some talent. We’re trying not to throw in too many new faces all at once. We’re trying to integrate some of them. He’s had nine professional games for Cardiff and then he’s thrown in to play one of the best teams in the world. He’ll get some good game time. I want to see him get his hands on the ball and defend. For a 20-year-old, he’s 118kgs and is only going to get bigger and stronger. He needs to learn about playing the game at this level and that’s going to take a bit of time for him.”
Gatland is a serial winner, constantly capable of producing silk purses out of sow’s ears, but even he, deep down, will know that a victory on Saturday is highly unlikely unless Ireland have a man or more sent off (as Peter O’Mahony was when Wales won in Cardiff in 2021). This is about causing a stir or two.
“We know how good a side they are,” Gatland said. “They’re a settled team. They’re world class. They haven’t been beaten at home for a long time. They’re well coached. They’ve got a lot of familiar combinations, with a number of players from Leinster.
“It’s a big challenge for us but we’re excited about it. There’s been a lot said about us being underdogs but that’s not a motivation for us. The motivation is the pressure we’re putting on ourselves to get better from game one and two. We want to put a more complete performance on and continue to develop. I couldn’t have asked for more from the players in terms of their preparation. The attitude has been fantastic.
“What are the things we expect from ourselves? That’s what this week is about, it’s not the external pressure, it’s what we’re putting on ourselves about making sure we go there without any fear and play some positive rugby.”
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How Wales play will be fascinating — “Warrenball” is long gone. They are definitely looking to play with more width and ambition, but over-adventure against Ireland can be swiftly punished by a team so effective over the ball. Gatland wants his side to flip that by pouncing on any turnover ball themselves.
“We want to play heads-up rugby,” he said. “We’ve tried to be positive in the way that we have played, probably on a few occasions overplayed, that’s part of the learning about some of the game-management decisions. With Ireland, they’re incredibly organised, they like playing a pretty structured game, and there are opportunities when the ball becomes loose from turnovers for counterattack chances. I think we’ve seen that from a few games, particularly in the World Cup quarter-final where the All Blacks scored and put them under a little bit of pressure.
“So, we’ve got to be alive to that, be really ready when those opportunities present themselves and make sure we have the courage and are bold enough to exploit those chances.”
But it will require a perfect performance from Wales, probably best summed up by Nick Tompkins, the centre, when asked what they need to get right on Saturday.
“For us — everything!” he said. “If we’re off on any one thing, any aspect of play, they’re going to pounce on it. We’ve been talking this week about the need to give everything, in every area of the game, all the time. It needs to be 80 minutes as well. We’ve bigged this up enough for ourselves. We’re focusing on ourselves but the boys know what lies ahead.”
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Indeed, they do.
Ireland v Wales
Saturday, 2.15pm
TV ITV1
