So to use a racing analogy, which seems appropriate after yet another magnificent Cheltenham Festival, the runners and riders in the 2012 RBS Six Nations Championship approach the final fence in this year’s tournament this afternoon. Wales go into it with a two-length advantage and, given their fitness, look odds-on to justify favouritism to land the ultimate prize in northern-hemisphere rugby.
However, in the unlikely event that they do not stay the trip and France, under the hard driving of Philippe Saint-Andre overtake them coming up the hill, England could still have a say in the outcome if they time their run sufficiently well and, whip in hand, move clear of Ireland.
Unfortunately, yet again Scotland and Italy have failed to last the course and battle it out for the wooden spoon.
Those prescient people at the Six Nations offices in Dublin who compile the fixture lists could not have wished for a better conclusion.
Something significant hangs on each of the matches in Cardiff, London and Rome, and a series of staggered kick-offs should guarantee record television audiences. Who will be champions, who will be runners-up and who will finish bottom of the heap? The main event is at the Millennium Stadium, where Wales seek a third grand slam in eight seasons. It is a remarkable effort and, should they achieve it, they will have completed more clean sweeps this millennium than Ireland have in their history.
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Under Warren Gatland, Wales have built on their lauded World Cup campaign in New Zealand and once again captured the public imagination beyond the Principality. The match, though, will proceed under the shadow cast by the death of Mervyn Davies. There would be no better way to mark his untimely passing than for an emotionally charged Wales to emulate the feat of the wonderful sides of which the great No 8 was a part in the 1970s.
Whatever the outcome, Gatland looks to be a shoo-in as Lions coach for the tour of Australia next year, for which the WRU has allowed him leave of absence should he be selected. The union’s loyalty and commitment to the former Waikato hooker can only be applauded and he has repaid that faith in spades. The frenzy in Wales shows no sign of abating and should Sam Warburton and his players rise to the occasion, the team will deserve every penny of their reputed £2 million squad bonus.
Of the remaining coaches, the futures of Stuart Lancaster, Andy Robinson and even Declan Kidney remain less clear. Only Saint-Andre and Jacques Brunel can be certain of being in place this time next year, if only because they have just been appointed.
Lancaster awaits a final interview with the RFU next week before hearing if his application has been successful. His hopes will be boosted should England improve their miserable run of form against Ireland, whom they have beaten only once in the championship since the halcyon days of the 2003 World Cup.
Lancaster and Nick Mallett, his main rival, have their supporters. Kyran Bracken, the former scrum half, believes that continuity is key and that Lancaster deserves persevering with, but with Sir Clive Woodward brought back as a director of rugby. That would necessitate a restructuring of the professional rugby department, which is not on the cards at present. “What the coaching team need is more expertise in many different areas,” Bracken said. “The first and most important is having a director of rugby who knows his stuff. Nick Mallett would be good, but why not look at Clive Woodward again?
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“He has the knowledge to assist Lancaster in developing the team and providing support off the pitch. He will bulldoze his way to create a centre of excellence with little regard for the blazers. That is what Lancaster needs and I fear if he does not have it he will become another reject after a run of losses.”
Bracken also believes that it would be incumbent on Lancaster and the RFU to retain Andy Farrell whatever the cost of a compensation package to Saracens, to whom he returns as first-team coach on Monday after his brief Twickenham secondment.
“Farrell has been crucial in motivating the players to believe in each other and the cause,” Bracken said. “Would Lancaster thrive without him? I don’t think so. Just like Sir Clive Woodward may not have been so successful without Andy Robinson.”
For his part, Robinson could well be on his way out of Scotland after another season of underachievement. His departure would be accelerated by defeat in Italy and personal pride could cause him to jump before he is pushed.
Kidney, too, has not taken Ireland forward this season, notwithstanding the loss of Brian O’Driscoll for the entire championship and more recently Paul O’Connell.
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So much to play for and so much at stake.