Voters detect green shoots in the economy according to a new poll for The Times, amid hopes that Britain will be the first of the big countries to emerge from recession.
The Populus poll shows that economic optimism has recovered from the depths of the winter to the highest level since April last year. At present, 32 per cent think that the country will fare “well” over the next year, and 63 per cent “badly”. This compares with a low point in January of 18 per cent well and 79 per cent badly. By contrast, there has been little change in optimism about the personal outlook of voters and their families, at 46 per cent well and 50 per cent badly.
The contrast in levels of optimism is largely because those in work are benefiting from the absence of inflation, while the change in attitudes over the economy is a response to more positive economic headlines.
Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, feels that his relatively optimistic stance over recovery prospects has been reinforced. But in an interview in the Financial Times today he expresses concern over resurgent oil prices, now back above $70 a barrel, and toxic assets clogging banks’ balance sheets.
Optimism has been given a further boost as the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that the number of loans increased by 16 per cent in April, to 35,600.
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Otherwise, the poll, undertaken on Tuesday and Wednesday after the collapse of any leadership challenge, is bad news for Gordon Brown. His leader rating (on 0 to 10 scale) has fallen again, to 4.38, compared with 4.47 in early May. This compares with 5.33 for David Cameron, 4.64 for Nick Clegg, and 7.46 for President Obama.
The number trusting Mr Brown and Mr Darling to deal with Britain’s economic problems has fallen to a low of 27 per cent, while 39 per cent trust Mr Cameron and George Osborne.
Only 22 per cent think that Mr Brown is the right person to lead the country after the next election, against 44 per cent for Mr Cameron.
Replacing Mr Brown with Alan Johnson, the Home Secretary, would make no difference overall to Labour’s rating, though it affects floating voters.
Labour’s poll rating has risen by 3 points over the past fortnight to 24 per cent, the Tories are 5 points down at 36 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are 4 points up at 19 per cent. Other parties are down 2 points at 21 per cent. These figures reflect the impact of the European elections.
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A cautionary note for Mr Cameron is that, faced by a straight choice, 44 per cent would still prefer a Labour government and 42 per cent a Conservative one. This is despite 72 per cent dissatisfaction with Labour.
As part of his fightback, Mr Brown has called the Cabinet to a special three-hour session at No 10 today to consider public service proposals to give more control to patients, parents and other consumers. It will lead to the production of a draft election manifesto and a draft Queen’s Speech for the final session of this Parliament.
However, last night Richard Lambert, Director-General of the CBI, charged the political classes with being “wholly preoccupied with what’s going on within the Westminster village, and in doing what they can to strengthen their own positions over the short-term”. Instead, he said, political leaders should take bold steps to tackle the challenges of soaring government debt and spiralling youth unemployment.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged over 18 by telephone between June 9 and 10. For more details go to www.populus.co.uk.