It is a myth that all politics is local. In Britain, local elections give voters a say in how their neighbourhoods are run but also a way of sending a progress report to Westminster. As much by luck as good judgment, David Cameron has reason to be cautiously optimistic. Jeremy Corbyn should brace himself.
From London to Scotland and Wales to Ulster, today’s mayoral, council and devolved assembly elections are a stern test for Conservatives, whose national leaders have been distracted for months by the European referendum. More pertinently, they are the first test of Mr Corbyn’s claim to have a substantial following outside the echo chamber of fellow socialists that he inhabits on the fringe of his own party.
Zac Goldsmith vowed to campaign through the night as the Conservative candidate for mayor of London. Would that he showed such energy from the outset. He has fought a lacklustre campaign for the most powerful job in British local government. Even so, his platform of accelerated house building tinged with green radicalism is closer to what London needs in the 21st century than the concept of Sadiq Khan as self-proclaimed “shop steward” for the capital.
In Scotland a spendthrift Scottish National Party, caught without contingency plans by the plunging price of North Sea oil, has revealed nothing so clearly as the need for an effective opposition. The charismatic Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, has earned the right to lead it. Scottish Labour, still reeling from its annihilation in last year’s general election, is in the extraordinary position of fighting for second place. In the Welsh assembly the party of Aneurin Bevan is defending a wafer-thin majority with little confidence of keeping it despite the Conservatives’ clumsy handling of the Port Talbot steelworks sale.
At the council level a more bruising reality check is possible. Mr Corbyn had the nerve to blame the scandal of antisemitism in his party on rival parties’ fear of its strength “at local level”. In reality Labour has been polling roughly 9 per cent below its share of the vote before the last comparable elections in 2012, when it won nearly 800 seats. This time heavy losses are likely. Mr Corbyn’s best hope of a face-saving result is in London. But Mr Khan has let it be known that if he hosts a victory party he would like his leader to stay away.
Advertisement
Few can blame him. On Mr Corbyn’s watch, Labour has retreated to protest politics, alienated its moderates, failed as an opposition and been exposed as a safe space for closet racists. The rot runs deep and the party deserves to be punished for it.
Late polls show that Jewish support for Labour in London has fallen by more than half since May last year. If turnout is low, that too could help Mr Goldsmith. Nonetheless Mr Khan ends his campaign as Boris Johnson’s likely successor. There is little sign that he has the acumen, the consistency or the political courage that the London mayoralty requires. He has distanced himself briskly from the poison spread through his party by Ken Livingstone, but his plans to fix the capital’s housing crisis, based on rent control and a giant non-profit lettings agency, are wishful thinking.
Mr Goldsmith has by contrast taken a principled stand against a third runway at Heathrow and offered pragmatism rather than empty rhetoric in those areas where the mayor has power. Rather than bar outside investors he suggests enlisting them to help housing associations build more affordable homes. He proposes large-scale council estate regeneration to bring more housing up to date, and better transport links to bring the suburbs closer to the centre.
As populists clamour for attention on both sides of the Atlantic it falls to the quiet majority to keep liberal democracy on track. Thoughtful voters should today shun Labour.