Leo Varadkar’s approval rating in the first Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes poll since he became taoiseach is six points higher than Enda Kenny’s last score, but he is still nine points behind Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin.
Varadkar’s 43% satisfaction rating coincides with a four-point rise in support for the government, at 39%. An exceptionally large number of voters (32%) had “no opinion” about Varadkar, an indication that they are withholding judgment on the new taoiseach. Only 25% said they were dissatisfied.
The taoiseach is still behind Kenny’s highest score in the poll series — 44%, in December 2013 — but well ahead of Kenny’s lowest point this year — 27%, in March.
While support has risen for the leaders of all four main parties, Fine Gael has not gained the advantage it expected from Varadkar’s election and cabinet appointments. The party is still at 29%, no change since last month.
Fianna Fail is up one point to 30%, while Sinn Fein is unchanged at 18% and the Labour Party has 5%. There is no change in support for “others”, including the Independent Alliance, Greens, Solidarity-People Before Profit and independents.
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Fine Gael’s support has dropped from 36% to 30% among men but there is a corresponding rise in support among women, from 22% to 28%. In last year’s general election, Fine Gael won 25.5% of the vote and Fianna Fail 24.3%.
In terms of leader satisfaction, Labour’s Brendan Howlin (42%) and Gerry Adams of Sinn Fein (43%) are both up from 37% last month. The latter’s support is level with Varadkar’s.
Fieldwork for the poll of 923 eligible voters was conducted between June 29 and July 11. This was during the aftermath of the Dail dispute between Varadkar and Martin over the appointment of Máire Whelan, the outgoing attorney-general, as a judge of the Court of Appeal.
The fieldwork coincided with the visit of Justin Trudeau, the Canadian premier, which attracted international media attention, and the acquittal of Solidarity TD Paul Murphy and five other men on charges of falsely imprisoning Joan Burton when she was tanaiste.
“The past couple of months of political shenanigans may well emerge as having been much ado about nothing,” said Ian McShane of Behaviour & Attitudes.
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“We’re as clear as we have been since just about last year’s election as to the most likely make-up of the next government: either a combination of Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein, or a multicoloured rainbow coalition led by Fine Gael.”
Fine Gael’s support is strongest among farmers (54%) and the better-off ABC1 voters (34%). It is the largest party in Dublin, with 31% support.
Fianna Fail’s approval among voters aged over 54 is up three points to 38%, and by five points to 35% among blue- collar C2DE voters.
The results of the poll are deemed to be accurate within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.