The link between case numbers and death numbers is breaking as a result of the vaccination programme, data suggests.
The React survey, which regularly tracks the virus by randomly swabbing a sample of people in England, found that 0.2 per cent were infected with the coronavirus last month, down from 0.49 per cent in February.
Professor Steven Riley, of Imperial College London, one of the lead researchers on the project, said that for most of last year the pattern of cases rising and falling had been closely followed by the pattern of deaths.
However, he said there had been “some divergence between our observed patterns of infection and patterns of death since January, which we think probably suggests that the mass vaccination is breaking that link to some degree”.
The survey found that the R number, a measure of how many people each infected person passes the virus on to, had risen slightly, to 1. However, the researchers were “pleasantly surprised” not to record an increasing outbreak as schools reopened.
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The research, commissioned by the government, is based on swabs taken from 140,000 people selected to represent England’s population.
Experts found that the rate of infection fell in all age groups and regions from February to March, with figures also indicating that the vaccine programme could be “breaking the link” between infections, deaths and hospital admissions.
According to the study, one in 500 people on average was carrying the virus in March.
Researchers found there have been “big falls” in prevalence of the virus in the South East and London from February to March, but there remained “persistent areas of higher prevalence” of the virus in the southern part of Yorkshire and parts of the East Midlands and the North West.
Riley said: “The good news is prevalence has decreased by approximately 60 per cent from the previous round in February to the current results now in March.
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“The most recent data doesn’t show a continued obvious decline, we have a levelling off of prevalence, and that’s reflected in an R estimate of 1.”
Commenting on infection, deaths and hospital admissions data, he said: “We’re observing fewer deaths per infection than we would have expected based on the recent prior months of the study.
“To a lesser extent, we’re seeing fewer hospitalisations per infection as well.
“We think that this is a signal of how the vaccination programme is breaking the link, the previously strong link, between the pattern of infections and the patterns of deaths and hospitalisations.”