Demonstrating a flair for massive understatement, Tony Blair declared yesterday that there has been a “certain amount of confusion” about what had happened in the Northern Ireland Assembly and what it meant for the fate of the St Andrews agreement. A certain amount of pantomime would have been more accurate. Amid farcical scenes, a convicted killer, Michael Stone, was able to reach the buildings of Stormont, daub “Sinn Fein murderers” in red paint on the walls before bursting inside shouting “No surrender” and then hurling a plastic bag containing some crude explosive devices across the floor. It was a genuinely dangerous moment. The Assembly session was swiftly suspended in a state of chaos.
In a bizarre and entirely unintended manner, however, this crazed so-called loyalist may have done the peace process a favour. For his surreal activities partly overshadowed a meeting that was not much more coherent. Ministers in London and Dublin had expected the Rev Ian Paisley to insist that he would not accept the position of first minister unless Sinn Fein was willing to back the Police Service of Northern Ireland and other institutions of law and order. In fact, he went further than that (in the wrong direction) by implying that it would only be in the aftermath of such a concession that he would think about taking office alongside Sinn Fein and it might be a year before he finally made up his mind.
Ever the optimist, Mr Blair urged the citizens of Ulster to “put aside the legalistic debate” and instead “concentrate on substance”. That substance, he insisted, was that the DUP was willing to embrace power-sharing under the right circumstances. This may well reflect the private assurances he has been offered but it is hard to reconcile this assessment with the tone that has been struck by the two main parties in the Province. Nor is the notion of putting aside legalism wholly appealing when the legislation involved was barely 72 hours old. The outside observer might well conclude that, despite the Prime Minister’s rosy analysis, Ulster has returned if not quite to anarchy then a situation which borders on mayhem.
Yet there is cause for very restrained optimism. That policing, rather than whether IRA decommissioning has occurred, is the central issue represents progress. In theory, at least, a deal is not implausible. Sinn Fein needs to give ground and it is not unreasonable for the party to ask how responsibility for law and order in Northern Ireland would be devolved as a result. If Mr Paisley and Gerry Adams wished to reach an understanding with each other, they surely could do.
There are ways in which they can and should show sincerity. Instead of endlessly referring to the obstacles to the restoration of devolution, the DUP leadership should talk about the agenda that it would pursue once that transfer happened and how it will ensure that nationalists as well as Unionists would benefit. The Sinn Fein high command could make life much easier for its potential coalition partners by suggesting a figure less controversial than Martin McGuinness to serve as Deputy First Minister. Ulster has seen enough pantomime over the years. It is time to get serious.