The Kremlin has given its strongest indication that Russia will scale back its military ambitions in Ukraine to focus on fighting for control of the east.
After defeats around Kyiv and stalled efforts to capture ports on the south coast, Moscow said it would “focus our core efforts “ to achieve the “main goal, the liberation of Donbas”.
Full control of the contested province has long been identified as critical to Russia’s war. However, Putin has consistently said his objective is removing “the pro-Nazi regime in Kyiv”. The announcement by the defence ministry appears to indicate that Russia is scaling back its ambitions.
Other key developments:
• It has emerged that Russia sent nuclear submarines into the north Atlantic last month, hours after President Putin put his nuclear forces on higher alert
• The US and UK accused the Russian government of running a long campaign to hack into critical infrastructure.
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• The US has agreed to send the EU liquefied natural gas to ease its dependence on Russian imports. It will send 15 billion cubic metres this year, replacing about 10 per cent of overall Russian gas supply.
• A thousand civilians have been killed and 1,707 injured in 30 days of war, according to the UN.
There were also reports that Russia was no longer in full control of Kherson, the strategically vital port city that was the first to be occupied after the invasion.
The city has been the scene of frequent protests and resistance from Ukrainians as Putin seeks to secure strongholds along the south coast from Mariupol to Odesa. Pentagon officials said the city was now being contested.
Russia’s defence ministry previously claimed to have taken the entire Kherson region, though Ukrainian forces had been able to destroy several Russian helicopters on the ground at the city’s airport.
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Earlier, Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian general staff’s main operational directorate, said Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93 per cent of Ukraine’s Luhansk region and 54 per cent of the Donetsk region, the two areas that constitute the Donbas.
“The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine have been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas,” he said.
He added that Russia’s army had considered two options at the outset of the conflict: a national operation and one limited to the Donbas. “The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” Rudskoi said.
Moscow-backed rebels declared self-determination in the eastern Donbas region in 2014, leading to a grinding eight-year war that was used by Putin in February as a pretext for the full invasion of Ukraine. He claimed without evidence that Ukraine was wageing “genocide” against ethnic Russians. More than 14,000 people have been killed in the eastern conflict.
The Kremlin updated its death toll for Russian soldiers to 1,351, well below the Ukrainian estimate of 15,000 Russian casualties and the American figure of about 7,000.
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The statement from Moscow came hours after Ukrainian officials said they believed that as many as 300 people died in the Russian bombardment of a theatre in Mariupol where up to a thousand civilians were sheltering.
Russian bombs hit the Drama Theatre building last week despite a large inscription reading “children” being written outside to make it visible from the air.
“From eyewitnesses, information is emerging that about 300 people died in the Drama Theatre of Mariupol following strikes by a Russian aircraft,” the city council wrote on Telegram today. “Up until the very last moment, one does not want to believe this horror. But the words of those who were inside the building at the time of this terrorist act says the opposite.”
Ukraine said efforts to dig people out of the ruins of the building, which had a bomb shelter in the basement, were hampered by relentless bombardment.
For days the government in the besieged city of Mariupol has been unable to give a casualty count for the attack, on March 16. It was not clear whether emergency workers had finished excavating the theatre.
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Meanwhile, a British intelligence assessment said that Ukrainian forces had reoccupied towns and defensive positions up to 20 miles east of Kyiv, helped by Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines.
The Ministry of Defence said it assesses that Ukrainian forces are “likely” to continue to attempt to push Russian forces back along the northwestern route from the capital towards Hostomel airfield, which has experienced fierce fighting since the early days of the invasion. The MoD update was referring to territory on the M01 international highway, including Lukianivka and the village of Semypolky.
In the south, the ministry said that Russian forces were still trying to circumvent the strategic city of Mykolaiv as they look to drive towards the Black Sea port of Odesa “with their progress being slowed by logistic issues and Ukrainian resistance”.
Yesterday more than 250 airstrikes were carried out by Russian aircraft, according to the Centre for Defence Strategies think tank, striking military and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, Chernihiv in the north and the Kharkiv region.
The MoD update published last night said the Ukrainians would probably continue to target logistical assets in Russian-held areas, which would force Russian troops to “prioritise the defence of their supply chain and deprive them of much needed resupply”.
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“This will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations, and further damage already dwindling morale”, it said.
Ukraine is said to have told the US that it requires 500 Javelin and Stinger missiles a day as it continues to defy the grim predictions of a swift Russian victory while inflicting significant damage on the invading forces. Kyiv is said to have updated its request for further military assistance from Washington in recent days.
CNN reported that President Zelensky had asked for 72 Russian-made jets of two types, including one designed to support ground troops.
Zelensky told Nato yesterday that his country wanted only 1 per cent of the organisation’s tanks and jets, telling the alliance “we will see who is our friend, who is our partner and who has sold us out and betrayed us”.
It coincides with an EU deal to import more liquefied natural gas from the US to wean itself off Russian imports. America will provide the Continent with an extra 15 billion cubic metres a year, which accounts for about 10 per cent of the EU’s overall gas imports from Russia.
EU nations have paid Russia about £16 billion for energy since the invasion began, bolstering Putin’s war machine. Brussels plans to cut the bloc’s Russian gas imports by two thirds this year and eliminate them by 2030.
Boris Johnson has been trying to persuade Nato allies to agree to Zelensky’s pleas for tanks. However, President Macron of France is against providing such direct assistance. He said that it was a “red line” that risked the alliance becoming a “co-belligerent”.
He told BBC Newsnight he was “not optimistic” that Putin wanted peace and warned that he was attempting to “Groznyfy” Ukrainian cities. Grozny, the Chechen capital, was subjected by Russia to the heaviest bombing campaign in Europe since the Second World War, with huge civilian casualties.
Johnson has promised a further 6,000 missiles to Ukraine alongside a significant increase in funding. The missiles are in addition to more than 4,000 anti-tank weapons already supplied and include Nlaws and Javelins. Britain is also sending Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles and more body armour, helmets and combat boots.
He said: “We need to do more as the West, intensifying the sanctions, sending more missiles as we announced today, 6,000 more missiles, toughening up our sanctions, doing more to stop leakage of Russian gold: all the ways in which we can tighten the screw on him.”
