Ukraine licks wounds as guns go quiet

The charred and severed remains of two soldiers were still inside a shredded APC, which had melted into the tarmac next to a Soviet-era bus stop adorned with a large mosaic of a red hammer and sickle.Further up a ridge, blackened by fire, lay the maimed body of another Ukrainian soldier. Exposed to the baking sun, covered in flies and caked in soot and blood, his hand was stretched out with his wedding ring visible from afar. The soldier’s helmet, hand grenades and AK-47 lay next to him.

Yesterday, after weeks of such carnage, the guns fell silent in eastern Ukraine following a ceasefire agreed on Friday between the Kiev government and pro-Russian separatists.

In Donetsk, heartland of the rebellion, people ventured back out onto the streets and the first trolley buses began operating again.

Stalls opened at the market, at its busiest in weeks. Mothers strolled with babies, and on the outskirts of the city a smiling bride and groom posed for pictures.

“This morning I stepped out and for the first time in weeks I sat on a bench with my cat in the sunlight and smoked a cigarette,” said Svetlana, a saleswoman at a household appliances stall. “And for the first time everything was very silent. It felt like being on holiday. I’m hoping it will last.”

The ceasefire has been fragile. At a separatist checkpoint on the road to Donetsk airport, the scene of fierce fighting in recent days, the mood was belligerent. A rebel on duty claimed that shortly after the agreement was announced a government sniper killed two separatists — including a woman — and wounded three.

For its part, the SBU, Ukraine’s state security service, accused the separatists of having broken the ceasefire a dozen times in the first 12 hours.

Yet even if the ceasefire endures, the chances of it turning into a permanent peace look slim.

Young mothers bathe their babies in a cellar they have been forced to use to shelter from shelling ( )

The fact that any deal was done at all was down to a sudden deterioration in the fortunes of Ukrainian government forces. After weeks of steady gains in the east, they were forced onto the back foot by a separatist counteroffensive launched a fortnight ago — with the apparent help of Russian forces.

Aware the Kremlin would not allow him to defeat the rebels, Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, was left with no alternative but to do a deal with them.

The 14-point agreement — orchestrated by Vladimir Putin, the Russian president — calls for an exchange of prisoners, a disbandment of militias on both sides and amnesty for those who have not committed serious crimes. It also establishes a six-mile buffer zone along the Russian border.

Crucially, however, no agreement has been reached on the future political status of the substantial territory held by the pro-Moscow separatists — now expected to come under the Kremlin’s direct influence.

Putin wants Ukraine to become a federal state; Poroshenko has offered only decentralisation and greater economic freedom.

The Ukrainian president’s room for manoeuvre is restricted by fears of the reaction to anything that smacks of a sellout from the volunteer militias who have taken up arms against the separatists.

Sources close to the government warned that Poroshenko could face a coup staged by the more radical elements behind the protests in Kiev that led to the ousting in February of his pro-Kremlin predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych.

The president’s scope for action is further limited by parliamentary elections late next month that he had hoped would enhance his power.

“If Poroshenko does not stand up for Ukraine and falls under Putin we’ll definitely turn against him,” said Nikolai Lisenko, a volunteer who joined Aidar, one of the pro-Kiev battalions. “We’re expecting leadership from him, not treason.”

His words were echoed by Andriy Biletskiy, founder of the ultranationalist Azov battalion. “The enemy is still on our territory,” he said. “As soldiers, we will obey orders [to stop shooting]. As citizens, we will not admit this ceasefire.”

One of his men added: “We will use the ceasefire to regroup and retrain, and then we will take the land back.”

Separatist fighters will also be reluctant to disarm and in the wake of their recent advance are sure to complain they were stopped too early.

Speaking at last week’s Nato summit, Barack Obama expressed doubts the truce would result in anything more substantial.

The EU agreed last week to a new round of economic sanctions against Moscow — adding 24 people to the list of those barred from entry and whose assets have been frozen — but says it may retract them if the ceasefire holds.

Russia responded yesterday by warning “there will undoubtedly be a reaction from our side” if the sanctions are imposed.

The danger is the two sides will remain deadlocked — leaving the east of Ukraine, which is awash with weapons, in limbo. Although a serious problem for Kiev, this would suit Moscow, as it would scupper Ukraine’s ambitions to join the EU and Nato — which Putin bitterly opposes.

“A ceasefire, if it holds, is good, as it spares lives, especially civilians,” said a Moscow-based diplomat. “But the crisis in Ukraine has gone from bad to worse. It’s such a mess now and Poroshenko’s hands are so tied that no one can see how we’ll have long-lasting peace after so much blood was spilt.”

@stforeign

Moscow’s frozen conflicts
Eastern Ukraine could become the latest in a series of “frozen” conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union if the government in Kiev fails to agree its status with the pro-Moscow rebels.

One of the first was in Transnistria, Moldova, where pro-Moscow rebels fought a bitter civil war with the government in 1992. Since a ceasefire in July that year it has remained in legal limbo, but is de facto under the control of Russia.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia — both formally part of Georgia — find themselves in a similar situation.

The Kremlin is accused by critics of fomenting unrest in these areas to destabilise its neighbours and retain its influence — something it is feared it will continue to do in eastern Ukraine.