THE Conservatives are considering offering a referendum on European Union membership to avoid being trounced by the UK Independence party (UKIP) in European elections in 2014.
A Downing Street pollster, Andrew Cooper, has warned the Tories they face embarrassment in elections to the European parliament unless they make a dramatic manifesto pledge.
His research suggests that UKIP could come first in the 2014 poll because of mounting public anger about issues such as human rights. Although the European Court of Human Rights is not an EU body, it is widely believed that the two are linked.
In a private presentation to party supporters, Cooper — one of the prime minister’s trusted aides — suggested the backlash could be avoided if the Conservatives took a stand before 2014, promising an “in/out” referendum on membership of the EU if they won a majority at Westminster the following year.
A source at the meeting said: “Cooper’s polling is clear. There’s a real public backlash against the EU and if we don’t do something, UKIP will get the benefit. There’s a real risk that they will beat us into second place in 2014, unless we do something before then.
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“Cooper’s solution is that we should make it clear before the Euro poll that we will offer a referendum if we win the general election in 2015.”
Cooper was speaking to a Tory networking group called Conservatives in Communications two weeks ago. He briefed them on his latest polling, highlighting how the prime minister’s popularity soared after he vetoed a change to the EU treaty last December. The prime minister’s tough stance immediately wiped out Labour’s poll lead.
Since then British taxpayers have been forced to pay £10 billion to help bail out the eurozone and European human rights legislation has caused the government repeated embarrassment.
Last month the European Court of Human Rights ruled that the UK must give some prisoners the right to vote, while the terror suspect Abu Qatada has exploited human rights laws to lodge repeated appeals against deportation. Cooper’s polling suggests Britain’s relationship with the EU is now a key voter concern.
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Some Tory MPs are wary of promising a referendum, fearing it will split the party and hamper a Tory government’s ability to introduce domestic reforms. However, the party leadership is concerned that the Labour party could pull off a political coup by beating them to it with its own manifesto pledge.
Such a move, from a traditionally pro-European party, would leave Cameron looking weak and boost the popularity of the Labour leader, Ed Miliband. The Conservatives would almost certainly be forced to match the pledge.
A Conservative insider said: “There is just a risk that Labour could be very tactical about this. It may not be very likely, but it’s something we’re all aware of.”
Significantly, neither Miliband nor the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, has ruled out such a move.
The latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times gives Labour a 10-point lead over the Conservatives and makes worrying reading for the prime minister. After a series of coalition blunders and U-turns, 59% do not think he has a grip on government. More than two thirds think he is out of touch, and more people see him as weak than strong. There are also signs that public patience with the U-turns is wearing thin.
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It follows reversals on several high-profile budget measures, with the latest being the Treasury caving in to pressure to abandon a cap on tax relief for charity donations.
Asked about recent U-turns, half of those questioned by YouGov said the changes were a sign of weakness or incompetence. Only a third saw them as a sign that ministers were willing to listen.