As Donald Trump closes in on the Republican presidential nomination, Washington has begun to ask who he would pick as his vice-presidential candidate — and, just as importantly, who would say yes if offered the job.
Ted Cruz, the tycoon’s closest rival, announced last week that he had picked Carly Fiorina, the former Silicon Valley chief executive, as his running mate. The surprise move ushered in the beginning of the “veepstakes”, the quadrennial exercise in speculation over who will be chosen to be a heartbeat away from the most powerful job on the planet.
Ordinarily, a place on “the ticket” is an honour that is only ever turned down through back channels, to avoid publicly snubbing the nominee — but this is no ordinary election year. With Mr Trump expected to be the nominee, a striking number of senior Republicans have emphatically ruled out taking the job if it were offered to them.
“Hahahahahahahahaha,” wrote Sally Bradshaw, a senior adviser to Jeb Bush, when asked if the former Florida governor, who was an early casualty of Mr Trump’s negative branding of his rivals in the nomination race, would accept a VP offer.
“That’s like buying a ticket on the Titanic,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, another who ran for the nomination.
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John Kasich, running a distant third in the race, was chosen as a possible Trump pick by The New York Times and The Washington Post over the weekend, along with Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor.
Ladbrokes puts Mr Kasich’s VP odds at 2-1. His quixotic quest for the nomination is all but doomed, but by staying in the race he could wield influence over the Republican convention in July if Mr Trump does not secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before the Cleveland convention.
Pundits have speculated that Mr Kasich could use his own delegate haul to nudge Mr Trump to victory, in exchange for a vice-presidential slot. He has denied such ambitions, and some think that any association with Mr Trump — who would be the least popular presidential candidate in modern history, and certain, many say, to lose heavily to Hillary Clinton come November — would be toxic.
Mr Christie appeared to angle for the job early on, endorsing Mr Trump in February. The billionaire, returning the favour, said on Tuesday: “I think Chris Christie is fantastic, so certainly he would be somebody on the list.”
Mr Trump has also hinted that he likes Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American senator he used to deride as “Little Marco” but who might boost his standing with Hispanic voters.
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Picking a running mate was once viewed as a sideshow, but no more. John F Kennedy’s decision to run with Lyndon Johnson was credited with helping the Democrats to win in southern states. Barack Obama was a first-term senator when he won his party’s nomination for the 2008 election, and chose Joe Biden, a political veteran.
Mr Trump has suggested he’d follow a similar course, picking somebody “political” to offset his own unfamiliarity with Washington.
A poorly considered choice can sink a ticket. In 2008, Sarah Palin, the little-known governor of Alaska, was ultimately judged to have hurt John McCain’s chances after a string of bizarre media appearances — including an interview in which she struggled to name a single newspaper that she had read.
She has since hinted that she would like to be Mr Trump’s energy secretary. She seemed to think, however, that that would involve overseeing “oil and gas and minerals, those things are my baby.”
She was mistaken: the energy department, among other things, oversees America’s nuclear arsenal and physical sciences research. “If I were head of that department, I would get rid of it,” Mrs Palin said.
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Best mate: who’s in the running
John Kasich There has to be some reason why the Ohio governor is refusing to drop out of the nomination contest. Odds 2-1
Marco Rubio Mr Trump mocked him as “Little Marco”, but the Florida senator is notoriously ambitious. Odds 6-1
Chris Christie The New Jersey governor is a friend of the tycoon and endorsed him after quitting the race in February. Odds 6-1
Nikki Haley The South Carolina governor would certainly help to solve Mr Trump’s woman problem — but is being touted as a possible compromise candidate if the party rejects him. Odds 10-1
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Ted Cruz is clearly desperate to reach the White House; so much so that “Lyin’ Ted” may even be willing to serve under his hated rival. Odds 12-1
Odds from Ladbrokes
