A trade deal with the US is the divorce dividend that Brexiteers have dreamt of.
A quick deal would show the world that Britain, unburdened by the special interests that mired a US-EU deal, could strike out on its own.
It would also enable the author of The Art of the Deal to stand up his claim that he could reach better agreements than his incompetent predecessors.
But there are legal and practical constraints that make a quickie agreement difficult. First, the government has conceded that it cannot sign any free trade deal while it remains a member of the European Union. Strictly speaking it cannot even negotiate any, but in practice it will be able to begin exploratory “scoping” talks with prospective partners.
More problematic is Britain’s uncertain trading relationship with the EU and the rest of the world. US negotiators, and the business lobbies bending their ears, cannot know the value of British concessions until they know how Britain will trade with Europe.
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For instance, an American widgetmaker might value access to the UK far more if it can use Britain as a springboard for shipping tariff-free to European markets.
Brendan McGivern, a trade lawyer with White & Case in Geneva, said that another problem would be that Britain had not yet sorted out its stand-alone presence at the World Trade Organisation. It must submit a list of import taxes that the UK will put on all goods entering the country, with the exception of those coming from very poor countries or nations with which it has a trade deal.
“You can’t negotiate a reciprocal reduction in tariffs if you don’t know what one side’s tariffs are going to be,” he said.
Liam Fox, the trade secretary, has said that he will seek to replicate the existing EU tariffs “as far as possible”. But it could take years to formalise and certain aspects, such as agricultural quotas, cannot simply be copied.
The final reason relates to the sheer breadth and depth of modern trade deals which encompass product standards, safety specifications and all manner of regulations.