A Conservative victory tomorrow would give a significant boost to the campaign for Scottish independence, according to a poll, which found that almost a third of Scots were more likely to back the break-up of Britain if Theresa May returned to Downing Street.
In the YouGov poll, 31 per cent of Scots said they would be more likely to support independence if Mrs May led a re-elected Tory government after tomorrow’s election.
This includes a large number of voters who backed Yes in 2014 but who said they would be even more determined for Scotland to leave the Union if they were faced with the prospect of another five years of a Tory government.
But, significantly, this group also includes 15 per cent of No voters from three years ago.
If they all switched to Yes, they would give Nicola Sturgeon the votes she needs to split from the UK.
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The poll found that Labour voters were the most likely to move from the unionist side.
A total of 39 per cent of Labour voters said they would be likely to embrace independence if Mrs May won, with 16 per cent of Liberal Democrats also prepared to switch.
The first minister has been urging Scots to vote against the Conservatives and has made it clear she would rather put Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10 than endure another Tory government.
The poll findings suggest a silver lining for Ms Sturgeon if the Tories swept back to power.
“We all know that the SNP secretly wants another Tory government
However, the pollsters also found that there was likely to be a distinct — if smaller — backlash against Mr Corbyn too.
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If Mr Corbyn leads Labour to victory, one in eight Scots (12 per cent) said they would be more likely to back independence. This includes 6 per cent of Conservative voters and 7 per cent of Liberal Democrats.
Labour managers have been arguing privately for months that Ms Sturgeon would prefer a Tory victory to a Labour one because this, they claim, would boost the independence cause. Now they seem to have the evidence to back up their arguments.
With the cause for independence currently having the support of 43 per cent of the vote, according to this latest YouGov poll, it would not take many unionists to switch sides for Ms Sturgeon to be confident of winning the next referendum.
James Kelly, Scottish Labour’s campaign manager, said: “We all know that the SNP secretly wants another Tory government, in the hope of creating another grievance to exploit in the pursuit of a divisive second independence referendum.”
He added: “This should worry all voters in Scotland who want to keep Scotland in the UK.”
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A spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives said: “If Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister, he will need the support of Nicola Sturgeon to do so. Part of that deal would be an immediate re-run of the independence referendum.
“In contrast, Theresa May has stood firm in saying now is not the time for another divisive separation argument.”