This week the public’s trust in MPs has been shaken but so has Tory MPs’ trust in their own government leadership.
Wednesday’s vote on the suspension of Owen Paterson opened the floodgates to allegations of sleaze and corruption, leaving many Tory MPs with deep reservations about being whipped to vote in favour of Andrea Leadsom’s amendment.
The night before the vote, one former Conservative minister and backbench MP even texted me out of the blue to say the prospect of the vote was making them very uncomfortable. “I feel for him but the report is quite clear that he broke the rules. Are we planning to propose a select committee on Claudia Webbe? It really stinks.”
The same MP then followed that up the next morning with a message to say they were receiving messages from local councillors worried the controversial vote would hurt their chances of re-election.
When I asked another Tory MP how they felt ahead of the vote, they replied: “Awful. I accept it is extremely ugly. It is terrible. But it is a product of a process inadequate to being contested. I do not think he [Paterson] will do well in what amounts to an appeal and then he will take an even worse thumping. It is a lose-lose for him.”
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Another said to me they didn’t think MPs should be voting on each other’s sanctions at all but that an appeals process was needed.
Not even 24 hours later and the government U-turn announced by Jacob Rees-Mogg in the chamber made them all look like they couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery.
This unexpected change of tune for the government set some MPs’ backs up after a stressful day deciding whether or not to vote with the government against their gut or to rebel and face the consequences of breaking a three line whip.
Tory MPs are now blaming government whips and a lack of foresight in No 10 for the colossal mismanagement of the saga and the massive breach of trust among the Tory party.
“This shows very poor judgment,” said one Conservative MP. “I am angry that the government has put the interest of one member who has flagrantly breached the rules ahead of those of other MPs, especially those who served on the committee who have been hung out to dry. Whipping rests on trust and that trust has been badly damaged unnecessarily.”
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Another Tory texted me to say they were “hugely annoyed by the whole thing. So many parts. But Owen doing that media round saying he would do it again, then the U-turn and also people breaking a three line whip with no consequences.
“Something for everybody in the party to be pissed off about. No MP wants to have their integrity dragged through the mud like this.”
One MP who spent the best part of Wednesday morning trying their best to persuade other members that voting with the government would end in disaster said: “It is unbelievable. Some of us spent yesterday [Wednesday] trying to caution that it would make it worse for Owen. Couldn’t get much worse now!”
There is huge sympathy for Paterson’s position but one MP suggested “the PM used him in his own vendetta against the commissioner . . . It’s really poor form”.
Moreover, this week’s YouGov poll of voting intention for The Times already indicates this scandal may have been picked up by the public as the Conservatives are down by three points to 36 and Labour are up two points to 35, meaning the Tory lead is now only by one percentage point.
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This could spell bad news for Boris Johnson if his MPs begin to lose trust in him as the person ultimately responsible for this week’s embarrassing ordeal.
This parliament has already proved to be more rebellious than you might expect given the prime minister’s big majority — and from what I’m hearing in the corridors of Westminster it could be about to get a whole lot worse.
Mhari Aurora is Red Box reporter for The Times