THE rebranding of the Tories is working. But Labour should not panic, yet. A Populus poll for The Times, taken over the weekend, shows that the Cameron effect has been worth about five to six points to the Tories. Labour is still hanging on. By contrast, in the mid-1990s when Tony Blair took over, Labour was out of sight of the governing Tories.
For the first time in a Populus poll, the Tories are just ahead, at 37 per cent (up one point since early January), against 36 per cent for Labour (down three). The poll was based on interviews with 1,508 adults between February 3 and 5 (for details see populuslimited.com). The average Tory rating since David Cameron became leader is 38 per cent, against 32 per cent between the May election and December.
Labour has averaged 37 per cent, against 40 per cent previously, well above where the Tories’ ratings were in the mid-1990s. Moreover, Gordon Brown is ahead of Mr Cameron as the preferred prime minister after the next election, on 38 to 33 per cent, against 36 to 35 per cent in December. Mr Brown keeps this edge when the three Liberal Democrat candidates are included. They are in single figures, with Mr Brown ahead of Mr Cameron by between three and twelve points.
The key to the Tory revival has been the recovery of middle-class support to above 40 per cent. For the first time since the early 1990s, more voters regard the Tories as united than Labour, at 38 to 34 per cent, though that is mainly because of a seven-point drop in the Labour rating after the party’s squabbles over schools reform.
The Tories have also improved on having a strong team of leaders (up two points at 38 per cent), though still behind Labour on 55 per cent. More people believe that the Tories care about the problems of ordinary people (at 38 per cent, up four points). Mr Cameron has made his party more appealing. Now he has to convince voters that the Tories should be the next government.
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The past few weeks have been awful for the Liberal Democrats, but they are not in free fall. Their poll rating is now 18 per cent: five points below last May, but two points higher than a month ago, when Charles Kennedy was ousted. This is a lot better than in the late 1980s.
More worrying for the Lib Dems is the slump in the number believing the party is united, a 22-point drop since December to only 31 per cent now. On the same basis, the number thinking the Lib Dems have a strong team of leaders has plummeted by 35 points in two months to 17 per cent. This underlines the scale of the challenge for the new leader. This is probably still Sir Menzies Campbell, though, the survey of Lib Dem members by The Times suggests, Chris Huhne is making a strong running.
The Lib Dems are already being squeezed by the Tories, as shown by Mr Cameron’s attempt to portray himself as a liberal Conservative, via a bizarre, and partly misleading, claim that the two parties now have similar approaches on Iraq and other issues.