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ELECTION 2017

Tory lead grows in election’s final poll

Theresa May finished the campaign with a seven-point lead in the polls which, if is borne out by votes, will give her a majority of almost 50 seats
Theresa May finished the campaign with a seven-point lead in the polls which, if is borne out by votes, will give her a majority of almost 50 seats

The Conservatives have taken a seven-point lead over Labour as voters head to the polls, according to the final survey of the election campaign.

If borne out by votes, the result means that Theresa May can expect to return to Downing Street tomorrow with a majority of almost 50 seats, up from 17. The YouGov/Times poll showed a late dip in support for Labour. It put the Tories on 42 per cent, unchanged since Friday, Labour on 35 per cent, down three points, the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent, up one, and Ukip on 5 per cent, up one.

Using the Electoral Calculus website and assuming an even swing, this result combined with the final YouGov Scotland poll would give the Tories a majority of 48.

Sources from the two main parties believe that the Conservatives will do significantly better, with both suggesting a majority of more than 80 seats.

An ICM/Guardian poll gave Mrs May a 12-point lead, translating to a 96-seat majority. A Comres/Independent survey found a ten-point lead for the Tories and that half of those who voted Ukip in 2015 would vote Conservative.

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Mrs May called the election hoping that her promise of strong and stable leadership — while highlighting the contrast with her Labour rival Jeremy Corbyn — would win her a robust mandate to negotiate Brexit. She began the campaign with a 24-point poll lead.

The political battle was halted twice, by terrorist attacks in Manchester and London, while unhappiness with the social care policy in the Conservative manifesto forced the first significant campaign U-turn by a party leader in modern election history.

The prime minister’s personal ratings declined sharply. YouGov found that 43 per cent of voters said they wanted her as prime minister compared with 32 per cent for Mr Corbyn, a lead of 11 points. At the start of the campaign Mrs May’s personal lead was 39 points.

On defence and security the public backs Mrs May over Mr Corbyn to make the right decision to keep Britain safe from terrorism, but by a reduced margin — 46 per cent trust Mrs May, down nine points, while 34 per cent trust Mr Corbyn, up one point.

YouGov interviewed 2,130 adults between June 5 and 7.

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With the focus on turnout, the weather may play its part: rain is forecast across much of the country today.