The digital deadlock may be breaking, as the Tories register large successes on Twitter in key marginal seats, writes Carl Miller. New research reveals that while the national Tory Twitter campaign has stalled, the party has built significant leads in digital support in the key seats that will determine the outcome in May.
As the weeks count down to the general election, parties are devoting more resources to the online battle than ever before. Research this week from Ipsos MORI has shown that a third of young people report that social media will influence their vote. With half of the electorate still not firmly in any party’s camp, Twitter has become a crucial new dimension in an election where everything is still to play for.
The 209 Conservative MPs on Twitter have faced an uphill struggle over the last six weeks. They are led by Twitter’s most unpopular British politician and have been dogged by a number of negative stories – from the HSBC revelations to the TV debates – that have seen huge online reactions. From late January onwards, 47% of all tweets offering an attitude about a Tory MP have been a form of criticism – a more hostile reaction than for the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP, and 10% worse than Labour. Nicky Morgan is the party’s only MP in Twitter’s 10 most popular; Cameron, Osborne, Grant Shapps and Malcolm Rifkind all dwell in the bottom 10. Nationally, the Tories have struggled to put their case to an electorate increasingly turning to digital forums for its political news and commentary. They have sent only 27,000 tweets to Labour’s 42,000.
However, new research focused on the UK’s 100 closest races has revealed a radically different picture. Bucking the national trend, Conservatives defending key marginal seats are as active on Twitter as their Labour counterparts – and much more popular. Of the tweeted attitudes about Conservative MPs defending marginal seats, 83% were “cheers”: a mixture of agreement, offers of help, positive stories from the campaign trail and warm responses to appearances on two BBC programmes, Question Time and Inside the Commons. This makes the Tories the most popular group of incumbents facing close-run challenges, 20 percentage points ahead of Labour politicians in similar positions. Tory challengers are popular too, with 85% of the tweeted attitudes about the party’s most hopeful Prospective Parliamentary Candidates being some form of praise.
Significantly, Tory successes in these marginals appear to stem from digital campaigning strategies distinctly different from those adopted by the rest of the party. Senior Tories who have used Twitter to broadcast national slogans and messages have tended to be met with abuse or criticism. In contrast, Conservatives fighting close races have tended to prefer two-way conversations and the discussion of local issues.
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While digital platforms have become more important to elections, politics has remained local, even when it goes online. As the digital terrain shifts, it is over conversations about the Enfield jobs fair and High Speed Rail to Hastings, not national statements about the #longtermeconomicplan or the #growthdeal.
Carl Miller is research director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at Demos