Could the Tories do it? Could they really overtake Labour — for so long the party that reigned almost unchallenged in Scotland — and finish in second place? As election day dawned, even Tory strategists scarcely dared to dream the Conservatives could achieve the goal set for the party by Ruth Davidson. “It’s even money but we’re feeling good,” said one.
By mid-afternoon, the blue shoots of Tory optimism were beginning to sprout as surely as Labour’s red rose seemed to be wilting. One veteran Labour strategist summed up the day: “Another disaster for Labour.”
Ruth Davidson chose a hill upon which to make her stand: the Tories could achieve their best Holyrood result to date and still finish in third place, which would now, suddenly and remarkably, be considered a disappointing result. Such are the wages of expectation. “We made the decision to go all-in” said a poker-loving senior Tory. “Everything is in the pot. But if you’re not going to show ambition then what’s the point?”
In the Borders, however, as the first boxes from Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwick arrived, the Tories believed John Lamont would comfortably hold his seat. If Oliver Mundell could win Dumfriesshire, the new political map of Scotland would, one leading Tory said, “be like a Brazil strip: yellow top, blue shorts”.
It has been a long, long time since the Tories dared express such confidence. But if there was a Tory revival, it was eclipsed by Labour’s apparent collapse. Last year’s general election humiliation was not a one-off; another drubbing awaited. Only Edinburgh Southern and East Lothian, insiders said, offered credible grounds for optimism. But across most of the rest of Scotland the night was dark and full of terrors as far as Labour was concerned.
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The first results indicated as much. Labour’s vote fell by 10 per cent in Rutherglen. “Sadly, I think we’re going to see more results like this” said Pauline McNeill, the former Labour MSP for Glasgow Kelvin. “Let’s be honest”.
Labour’s recriminations took place in a target-rich environment. “We were promised a Corbyn bounce, weren’t we?” one disconsolate Labour figure suggested sardonically. Other propositions were busy being tested last night too: “We have a centrist SNP government and we might have a centre-right opposition. So is Scotland the left-wing country everyone assumes?”
Yet according to senior Labour sources, Kezia Dugdale cannot be blamed for Labour’s performance. “The people responsible for this are all in this room,” a senior Labour figure said. “Henry MacLeish is here, so is Jack McConnell, so is Johann Lamont. Our vote has been declining for a long time. It didn’t just start in 2007.”
Labour’s campaign just didn’t cut through. “We tried to talk about the issues but nobody’s interested,” complained a senior figure in the Scottish party. Labour’s vote was trapped in a vice, caught between Nicola Sturgeon’s Nationalists and Ruth Davidson’s ultra-Unionists. But if the Tories were to form the opposition, Labour sources suggested the real victors would be the SNP: “The Tories talk about guarding the Union but a Tory opposition at Holyrood makes another referendum more likely.”
Labour sources remained defiant to the end. But there was a mournful quality to that defiance. “We won the argument on tax but people just weren’t yet ready to move over to us,” one leadership source said. “There will be no challenge to Kezia Dugdale’s authority. The party cannot afford it. Kez has a huge mandate from the party,” one insider said. “She won 72 per cent of the vote less than a year ago,” said another Labour insider. “Kez isn’t going anywhere. Our problems didn’t happen overnight; they’re not going to be fixed overnight.”
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But Labour’s structural problems remain. “Our difficulty is that winning No voters is not enough. The Tories can keep going after No voters because they’re not going to be in power. Our party’s long-term future needs Yes voters too.”
As the hours passed, the stakes seemed ever more important. “Finishing second is important as we’ve hyped it so much,” admitted one senior Tory. With the erstwhile people’s party in disarray there was a palpable sense in Tory circles this was their best chance in a generation and also the last chance to make a meaningful breakthrough.