IF JAPAN can beat South Africa, you might think Wales are more than capable. But it does not work out like that. It never does. And anyway, Wales have known enough, and persistent, World Cup trauma not to assume any such thing at this exalted level.
There is a fair argument to be made that Warren Gatland’s greatest coaching achievement, among the many, is to have guided his 2015 team out of Pool A. That would probably have been so even if he had not had to find so many injury replacements.
But the taste of that triumph had turned to dust in Welsh mouths last night. This time Gatland’s alchemy failed to work. In fact for all their undoubted heroism Wales had fallen into some of the similar fallibility that had led them to defeat by the Wallabies a week earlier.
But try telling that to Sam Warburton. Try telling that to a Welsh public whose tendency to lurch between peaks and troughs of emotion, with nothing in between, can make a tough job impossible. So it had been during too much of the 30 years before Gatland came.
The next job is one of counselling as well as coaching, with the Six Nations scarcely three months away. When we get there, as long as the counselling works, there is no reason why Wales should not do their previous post-World Cup thing and win it, like they did in 2004 and 2008 after the tournaments in Australia and France.
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Is it a reason to be positive that Wales have frequently lurched into despair during World Cups, as shown by their repeated exits before the knockout has begun. One such was their premature 2007 homecoming that led to Gatland’s appointment.
Since England were gone, though not forgotten, there had been ample talk of how they might have had him. Fair play to Roger Lewis. Whatever other criticism he has had, the departing WRU chief executive pulled off a brilliant stroke in signing up the New Zealander after Gareth Jenkins was fired.
Hands off, as the message from Cardiff has already gone out. Gatland is contracted to the 2019 World Cup and the WRU chairman Gareth Davies has made it clear they intend that the Lewis deal is honoured to its last day.
If it depended on results, this – even when coaches’, let alone players’, feelings are at their lowest – to have got this far was no mean feat. Even if they had gone straight out, there would have been none of the venom exuded since England did it instead.
Over the past eight years Wales have not only become more consistently successful than they had been since the rose-tinted Seventies, they went into this tournament having been fourth last time and even, so they thought, in with a shot at the title. This despite being dumped in the “Pool of Hell” — Gatland’s preferred description of it which made it seem a flight of fancy. If the defeat by Australia put them in the less favourable side of the draw, the simple fact of being there at all turned into its own endorsement of Gatland’s patched-up squad.
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And here was a further cause for unlikely optimism. Wales’ victory over England, however notable, was so narrow, possibly fortuitous, that it left enough room for improvement to show this was precisely what they could achieve as it was increasingly required. They had perversely demonstrated as much while losing to Australia, playing superior rugby to they did against England game but display such inadequacy when it came to actually seizing the day. They had, we thought, more to bring out, more to show us against the Boks.
The moral remains that in this type of maelstrom match, the cool-headedness to take the opportunities created or offered is key. So in the first half here they created more from further out than ever they did against the Wallabies and still failed the exploitation test.
Gareth Davies’ try was the exception when, if a World Cup is to be won or even a semi-final place claimed, it needs to be the rule. The single-point interval lead that Dan Biggar’s last-kick drop-shot gave Wales was every bit as precarious as it looked on the big screen.
The second half was such a different tale. Wales hardly attacked. Their disparity in territory and possession was so conclusive it was a wonder they stayed ahead for all of 57 minutes, finally conceding to Fourie du Preez when their Herculean defensive effort was only five minutes from being completed.
No one should have been surprised. Wales forever insist they have no complex about playing the southern-hemisphere titans, Australia and New Zealand no less than South Africa. But when they somehow win it never feels less than a sporting miracle. Last November’s over the Springboks was the most recent of the rare examples.
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True, there was nothing inferior about the way the Welsh set about these middling Boks but even so the worst happened again. Two victories in 31 matches over 109 years tell the truth. Wales will never threaten to win a World Cup unless they change this dismal record.