The eighth EU referendum campaign in 25 years ended in a familiar 60-40 vote in favour of the fiscal compact treaty. On this occasion the debate was more focused, mainly because the No camp was unable to deploy its traditional arsenal of emotive arguments about abortion, military neutrality and the loss of Ireland’s only European commissioner.
Instead both sides had to argue about economics, and it soon became clear many in the No camp, especially independent and Sinn Fein TDs, had little grasp of the subject. Some eventually lapsed into attention-grabbing frolics — launching court cases, occupying buildings and writing “exclusive” newspaper articles — that had more to do with boosting their political brand than convincing voters. The Supreme Court has ruled that both sides in referendum campaigns must be given equal broadcast time, and some political groupings seem to have joined the No camp simply to get it.
The government can boast that, for the first time since 1998, it convinced Irish voters to approve an EU treaty in one trip to the polls. However, ministers resorted to scare tactics to achieve this. The threat by Michael Noonan, the finance minister, that this autumn’s budget would be tougher if the EU treaty was not ratified was crude but effective. Enda Kenny, who largely absented himself from battle, has farmers’ organisations and Micheál Martin, the Fianna Fail leader, to thank for the comfortable margin of victory. While much has been made of Dublin middle-class support for the treaty, rural Ireland’s resounding Yes was relatively more important.
Ministers put so much energy into this campaign that nothing else was accomplished over the past month. Anyone would think, for example, that an amnesty had been introduced on the household charge. Fewer than 1m of the estimated 1.8m households have registered for the €100 levy so far. It’s past time the government started collecting the outstanding cash. In the first place, those who have paid will be far less likely to do so again if they perceive there is no effective penalty for defaulting. Second, the household charge is but a modest precursor to the full-blown property tax that must be introduced under the terms of the European central bank-led bailout. If the state cannot collect €100, how will it persuade people to pay €1,000?
Several other problems have been kicked down the road, ranging from the relatively trivial issue of turfcutters breaking the law, to reducing and removing an array of allowances in the public sector which cost the state €1.5 billion a year. The €500m annual cost of sick pay has also yet to be tackled.
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The campaign has left a lingering sense that the government is imposing a harsh austerity programme on a destitute populace. This is partly the result of Sinn Fein’s successful branding of the fiscal compact as an “austerity treaty”. As minister Brian Hayes has pointed out, however, a government deficit of 8.6% of GDP is not austerity. Nor is increasing the minimum wage, retaining social welfare rates and income tax at pre-existing levels, nor providing a generous retirement package for public servants and then rehiring some to do their old jobs. A dose of actual austerity is long overdue in some feather-bedded sectors.
Throughout the campaign, the government parties were reminded they had broken some of their election promises and had yet to fulfil others. Their record on political reform has been particularly disappointing. We were promised the abolition of the Seanad, a serious reduction in the number of TDs, and a restoration of the Freedom of Information act. Buoyed by its victory in last Thursday’s referendum, Enda Kenny’s administration must now find a second wind, and start delivering.