1. Time for plan C?
200,000 infections yesterday, 1 million a day by Christmas, five-hour waits at booster clinics, a target of seven million jabs a week likely to go unmet: the numbers tell their own story. So with Britain having recorded its first Omicron death yesterday, where next?
I’ll spare you a rehash of the rows consuming Westminster – over just how many boosters by when Boris Johnson promised on Sunday night, and how many the NHS can deliver – and instead focus on one story from this morning’s papers. For it is clear enough that Britain is likely to lose its race against time with Omicron: just ask a minister or NHS executive. But what happens next?
This morning’s Sun sketches out one scenario: new restrictions on hospitality, be that entry limits in pubs or shutting them entirely. The accompanying government source quote is enough to fill anyone with foreboding: “You will be able to see your family at Christmas, but at this rate, you might not be able to do it in a pub. As for New Year’s Eve, that is a different story.”
These are measures ministers have hitherto refused to countenance publicly, but clearly form part of the plan. There’s a significant story in The Times, too, revealing that Rishi Sunak is willing to fund furlough once more in the event of a lockdown. And just like that, the most significant barrier to the most invasive restrictions on socialising comes tumbling down.
Significantly, the deputy prime minister Dominic Raab did not push back against the suggestion that plans for tighter restrictions were afoot, speaking on Times Radio earlier. “These issues are always discussed – we’ve got plan B, that’s what we think is required over the Christmas period.” You could say many things about that answer, but it isn’t a denial.
Advertisement
2. The 100 club
That, at least, is the view from Whitehall. Just down the road, Conservative MPs may as well be living on a different planet. More than a third of Boris Johnson’s backbenchers – at least 60, and perhaps as many of 100 – are likely to rebel on plan B measures and Covid passes today. Seventy nine Tory MPs have publicly declared their intention to vote against the government this afternoon, 23 of whom are former ministers and 22 of whom, altogether more worryingly for the PM, were first elected in 2019. And that headline tally, of course, is identical to his majority.
If the final score comes in any lower than 79, then we can safely assume that reports of a total breakdown in discipline are overstated – if only a little. I understand that several ministerial bag carriers reported to be on the brink of resignation yesterday, namely Joy Morrissey and Angela Richardson (who, by the way, has already been sacked from the frontbench once), have told whips they will vote with the government. If any higher, though, one has to ask whether relations between No 10 and MPs are frayed beyond repair.
In private, whips are threatening reprisals. And in public, ministerial rhetoric is strikingly unsympathetic – and uncompromising. Rather than offer concessions, Sajid Javid moved to tighten the rules on Covid passes in the Commons yesterday: once all adults have had a “reasonable chance” to receive their booster, “fully vaccinated” will mean three jabs, not two. And on Times Radio Dominic Raab made no attempt to meet rebels in the middle. “People should vote for these measures – they are a proportionate, targeted approach.”
By “people”, he presumably means the Labour Party.
3. Putin the screws on
That’s quite enough Omicron for now. How’s war with Russia as a palate cleanser? Boris Johnson spoke to Vladimir Putin via phone yesterday – just as Joe Biden did last week – and warned the Kremlin that it would face “significant consequences” in the event of any invasion of Ukraine.
Advertisement
The PM told President Putin that the UK was committed to Ukraine’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty” and that any “destabilising action” by Russia would be met with a united response from the West.
Meanwhile Putin’s deputy foreign minister gave Moscow’s first explicit warning of military action.“There will be confrontation. There’s no trust in Nato as an alliance. We’re no longer playing these kinds of games and don’t believe in Nato’s assurances.”
4. Mayor culpa
It’s been, what, a month since we had a decent Tory cronyism story – so have this one as an early Christmas present. The ST’s Gabriel Pogrund and I reveal in this morning’s Times that Lord McLoughlin, the former Conservative cabinet minister, is in line to become chairman of Transport for the North, the statutory body that advises the government on exactly what it says on the tin.
Why does that matter? After the damp squib that was last month’s integrated rail plan – which drastically scaled back HS2 and all but scrapped Northern Powerhouse rail – the region’s mayors fear that ministers want to install a candidate who will curb their influence. McLoughlin, who served as transport secretary under David Cameron, is up against a little-known consultant from the Port of Tyne in the final round of interviews and is widely considered a shoo-in.
Forget Paul Dacre at Ofcom – here’s an appointment critics of the government fear really would allow them to take back control.
Advertisement
5. Caption competition
By now we’ve all seen that pic of Boris Johnson holding court at No 10’s notorious Christmas quiz – and yesterday I asked for your captions on a postcard.
Good grief did you deliver. I got fewer emails the time I put a four-letter expletive in the subject line. Here’s a selection of the best – would that I could have included them all.
Roger Dawe: “Next question: is this quiz entirely consistent with our Covid guidelines?”
Dave Masson: “Are you sure you hung your coat up on that camera?”
Austin Fears: “Which past female prime minister can see my bald patch?”
Advertisement
Robin Kempster: “Peppa Pig is: a) a cartoon character, b) a junior member of my cabinet, or c) a distraction?”
Susan Malcolm: “Staff astounded to see PM’s nose grow during secret Christmas quiz.”
Patrick Maguire’s analysis first appeared in the Red Box morning newsletter