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Tiger Woods’s toughest test is yet to come

It may be spoiling the sport to tear oneself away from the Tiger jokes and the weird and hilarious comment postings that followed the Woods mea culpa on his website, but what is at jeopardy, in the hazard, is not just a marriage and a carefully constructed personal image but a golfer's place in the game's history.

Until recently, Woods' progress to the highest rank of all seemed inevitable. He was increasing his major titles with an ease and at a rate that meant it was merely a matter of how long it might take him to surpass Jack Nicklaus' record total. Those majors, of course, are the accepted measure of greatness. Nicklaus managed 18; Woods has 14 and needs five more to end all arguments about supremacy.

As well as almost 20,000 pieces of advice, biblical and profane, Woods' website has a "Tiger v Jack" statistical section that underlines the truth that the ghost of Nicklaus as a competitor and his monumental record presents a more vital challenge than any mustered by Woods' contemporaries.

Against Nicklaus, Woods comes out favourably in most comparisons. At the age off 33, Woods has won 14 majors, while Nicklaus had 12 at that age. Woods' stroke average, driving distance and putting statistics are all superior. Woods has done much better financially, even allowing for inflation. Nicklaus's on-course earnings were a little under $6m during his career; Woods has already picked up almost $100m.

But the example of Nicklaus and many others shows that personal stability is the true bedfellow of high-level sporting longevity. One can cite two other contenders for the title of "greatest ever": Bobby Jones, correct and conservative to his core; and Ben Hogan, who went to bed either with his wife or his putter. For an extreme example of a man who squandered his glorious gifts, take wild John Daly.

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As Nicklaus acknowledged in his autobiography, the best career move he made was marrying Barbara Bash, a bright, unpretentious woman he met during his first week at Ohio State University. "Despite the millions of miles we travel, the glitzy places we visit, the famous people we know and the many material comforts that grow from a successful career, we are both pretty simpleliving homebodies who are most comfortable and content in our own tightly-knit, informal, unpretentious at-home normal world with our children and grandchildren at the centre," said Nicklaus.

Their world was so normal that for many years the couple's home telephone number remained in the local Palm Beach directory. Woods' life could hardly be more different. His home is in an exclusive gated "community", his telephone number known only to his management, sponsors, a few friends (and cocktail waitresses).

At tournaments, where his fellow competitors stay in hotels, he has the use of a private mansion, guarded at all times. But the gilded cage can be a privilege or a prison and long before the scratches, the barefoot breakout, the crashes, the three-iron through the car window and all the revelations that have kept us aghast, there were signs of emotional disturbance, signs that Woods was losing control.

Since his return to competition in the spring after knee surgery, Woods has played 22 events and has won nine. That exceptional ratio has confirmed his position as easily the best player in the world. But he failed to win any of the tournaments he craves most, the majors, and his behaviour has often been appalling.

Along with brilliant stroke-play and miraculous putting, he has taken to spitting, swearing, slamming clubs into the turf, throwing them about and showing a less than courteous attitude to opponents. At this year's Open championship, he failed the Turnberry test of straight driving and good-tempered patience and missed the cut for only the second time in his career.

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At the USPGA championship, he led the field going into the final round, as he had in all his 14 major wins, and for the first time was overtaken while leading on the final day. YE Yang, the 37-year-old from South Korea, started two strokes behind Woods and finished three ahead.

Woods, scowling, walked off the 17th green when Yang had still to putt out, which is pure bad form. As one critic wrote: "It was the end of an aura." After an errant drive during his last event of the year, the Australian Masters, Woods hurled his driver, endangering spectators, and failed to apologise, though he still won the event.

At the time, it was assumed that such misdemeanours showed that Woods was frustrated with his game in general and his wild driving in particular, that falling short of perfection on the golf course unsettled him. It now seems more likely that his frustrations run much deeper, that he is fed up being who he is, where he is.

From the time he took his first steps as a child and was handed a miniature golf club, Woods was told he was "chosen". The choosing was not done by Woods himself, but by his father, Earl, the one person to whom Woods always deferred. And now Woods has no choice but to continue, trapped like a monarch, not by divine right but by his talent and celebrity. Earl, who would not have been slow to give his advice and give it straight, died in 2006, six weeks before the US Open at Winged Foot, the only other major at which Woods missed the cut.

Soon enough, Woods will have to face the embarrassment of his public return to competition. That is bound to be difficult and will probably affect his performance, which itself could increase his frustration. He is likely to hide away even more than he did before the controversy, to control even more rigorously his interaction with the public and press.

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It is easy to imagine that his annual excursion to the Open championship will not be happy. Two of Woods' three Open wins have come at St Andrews, where the 2010 championship will be held. The Old Course, which forgives poor driving, especially if it veers left, suits him nicely. The attentions of Her Majesty's tabloid press will not. Woods will hide away and public performance may be a burden.

In his past 10 major championships, Woods has won two. As a professional, he was won 14 out of the 50 he has played, so his rate of success has diminished. If he continues at his recent one-in-five rate, it will take him five or six years to exceed Nicklaus's record. By that time, Woods will be close to 40. He can still do it but prolonged personal turmoil will make it difficult.

If Woods seeks advice beyond his management circle, he need look no further than his own website, where whoever is employed to ensure decorum seems to have given up the unequal struggle. "Give her the 20 million and get joint custody," says one fan. "Read the Gospel of John," urges another. Another, rather quaintly, suggests: "Tiger, you take all the time you need to get it together, take your family and come to Prince Edward Island, Canada, for a getaway. We have two newspapers here and they report nothing. Have some quiet time where you could go to McDonald's and no one would bother you."

Fat chance. The most obvious advice is just to get a life, a normal one. Unfortunately, it's too late for that.

McIlroy quits

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Rory McIlroy withdrew from the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa before the third round yesterday. McIlroy, who had started the day last in the 12-man field, cited a stomach virus. Home favourite Retief Goosen holds a two-shot final-round lead.

Ireland's Padraig Harrington was two stroke behind leader YE Yang at the halfway stage of the Chevron World Challenge in California, the tournament traditionally hosted by Tiger Woods. Graeme McDowell, who replaced Woods, was five off the pace after two rounds.