About a month ago, people were genuinely talking about whether Chelsea could threaten the Premier League record for fewest goals conceded in a season, held by José Mourinho’s 2004-05 Chelsea side, with 15. That record has long been considered nigh-on untouchable, and perhaps it was always a long shot. But after 12 games, Thomas Tuchel’s team had let in only four goals, and at that stage, their overall league record under Tuchel, going back to last season, was 30 games, 17 goals conceded (five of those in one chaotic match against West Bromwich Albion). This really was one of the best defences that we’ve seen for a very long while.
Since then, Chelsea’s defence has come down to earth with a bump. They’ve conceded seven goals in their past four Premier League games, without a single clean sheet, with a 3-3 draw against Zenit St Petersburg thrown into the mix for good measure. So what’s gone wrong?
It’s only a very short period, and within it there have been some freakish goals and individual lapses. There was Arthur Masuaku’s unintentional winner for West Ham United, Jorginho’s calamitous halfway-line error that allowed Jadon Sancho to score for Manchester United, the self-inflicted penalty conceded against West Ham, and the one that Marcos Alonso gave away here, under no real pressure, with Daniel James going away from
goal after a heavy touch. Chelsea certainly haven’t become a bad defensive team overnight, far from it, and a few of these concessions can be filed under a lack of concentration, or pure bad luck.
There are a couple of aspects that point to more systemic problems though. Since Tuchel took over, Chelsea’s defence has been extraordinarily good at forcing their opponents to take low-quality shots. They are not actually a much more dominant team than they were under Frank Lampard in terms of their share of chances: Chelsea took 63.4 per cent of all the shots in their Premier League games under Lampard, a figure that has risen only slightly to 64.5 per cent under Tuchel.
A big part of Chelsea’s excellence since the German took over has been their ability, through great coaching and a defensive unit working as one to narrow shooting angles or get bodies between the ball and the goal, to turn good chances into half-chances and half-chances into minimal ones. From the day that Tuchel took charge in January to Chelsea’s 4-0 win over Leicester City on November 23, the average expected-goal value of a shot conceded by Chelsea in the Premier League and Champions League has been 0.092 xG: in other words, it would only be expected to result in a goal 9.2 per cent of the time. That’s an exceptionally low figure, and a huge reason why their defensive record has been so good.
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In their past five games, however, Chelsea have conceded much clearer chances: the average shot they’ve faced against Manchester United, Watford, West Ham, Zenit and Leeds would be expected to result in a goal 13.8 per cent of the time. It’s a pretty small sample, and individual errors like Jorginho giving Sancho a run on goal will have played a part in inflating that figure. But there have also been moments when Chelsea have legitimately been cut open, something we were not used to seeing under Tuchel. Against Zenit, they allowed Claudinho a free header in the six-yard box and were completely undone by a through ball which put Sardar Azmoun clear on Édouard Mendy. In Saturday’s game, Leeds’ equaliser came from Tyler Roberts being sprung in behind Chelsea’s defensive line, with a too-deep Thiago Silva playing him on and then failing to get in front of Joe Gelhardt.
Watching the goals that Chelsea have conceded, there’s not a particularly glaring common trend — despite the fair criticism often levelled at Alonso — as many have come down the left as the right. But one small thing is noticeable. Since Chelsea adopted Tuchel’s 3-4-3 system, their lateral centre backs, especially Antonio Rüdiger, have been brilliant at stepping up the pitch and pressuring opponents in the half-spaces, forcing them to go backwards and heading off attacks at the pass.
Right now, this facet of the way Chelsea defend isn’t working: either the defender is standing off, or they’re stepping out but not affecting the ball, and getting turned. Leeds’ equaliser was a classic example: Rüdiger races out of the defensive line to close down Mateusz Klich, but he doesn’t get there and never recovers his position. That’s not to place too much blame on Rüdiger, who was arguably Chelsea’s most influential player here, but it’s another part of the system that isn’t clicking.
Gelhardt, the 19-year-old striker who scored with his first touch, was hugely impressive. Having won a late penalty against Wolves in October, he had an even bigger impact here. At 5ft 9in, he’s unusually stocky for a modern centre forward, but his low centre of gravity gives him excellent power and close control. He showed brilliant acceleration and instinct here to get away from Alonso and burst past Silva to get on the end of Roberts’ cross.
“When I come on I always just try and impact the game and the manager just told me to get on it,” he said afterwards. “When the cross came in my eyes lit up and then when it went in I almost didn’t know how to react, but it was a special moment.”
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“It was a goal that reflects his qualities,” Marcelo Bielsa said. “Being in the right place at the right moment, to confirm those characteristics at this level is important.” With Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo still sidelined with injury, Bielsa may be tempted to hand Gelhardt a start against Manchester City. It’s the start of a tough sequence of fixtures for Leeds, who face Arsenal and Liverpool thereafter, but there was encouragement in how often they were able to put Chelsea on the back foot here.
