The prime minister is facing a donors’ revolt and growing pressure to leave Downing Street as soon as the outline of a trade deal is negotiated with the European Union this autumn.
Discontent with Theresa May among the Conservatives’ financial backers boiled over at a fundraising event last Thursday, according to a donor. An account of the event — where about a quarter of the 50 donors present were said to have demanded her resignation — has been circulating among Brexit-supporting Tory MPs.
Mrs May’s grip on No 10 has weakened markedly in recent days as the Leave and Remain wings of her party raise the stakes before the start of talks on Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Dismay over political drift, concerns about local council elections this spring and the fallout from a botched reshuffle have revived questions over leadership among her MPs.
One source close to the Brexit-supporting European Research Group (ERG) of backbench Tory MPs said that the chance of Mrs May’s survival was “50:50”, with pleading by her cabinet given as the main strength keeping her in place. “There is no one defending her but no plot to oust her. It’s the worst of all worlds,” a senior Conservative said.
Some MPs told the chief whip in the autumn that Mrs May should go and say that this belief stands. They did not submit letters to the head of the 1922 Committee, believing that it was for Mrs May to choose to stand down in private rather than be forced out through that mechanism.
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Donors publicly voiced their disquiet at the fundraising event in London, one backer said. “Among even the most loyal middle-ranking donors there is utter despair,” the businessman said. “Dominic Johnson [a Tory party treasurer] stands up and says: ‘I love Theresa May, who could possibly want to replace her?’ What he didn’t expect was about a quarter of the room to say ‘yes [we do]’. This was a room of very, very traditional donors.” Conservative campaign headquarters refused to comment on “private events”.
Fears over increasing instability in Britain prompted Brussels to open the door yesterday to extending the transition arrangements beyond December 31, 2020. “We can see what is happening in Britain and they might need more time. It is a mess,” an EU diplomat said.
In a further blow to Mrs May, a secret government assessment of the economic impact of Brexit, due to be presented this week to the cabinet, but leaked to Buzzfeed News, showed that Britain would be worse off in the three scenarios modelled. Under a free trade agreement with the EU, British growth would be 5 per cent lower over the next 15 years compared with current forecasts; a “no deal” outcome, in which Britain reverted to World Trade Organisation rules, would reduce growth by 8 per cent over that period. Single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area would, in the long term, cut growth by 2 per cent.
It was claimed yesterday that Angela Merkel mocked Mrs May during a private meeting with German journalists at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. The German chancellor is understood to have told the gathering that Mrs May asked her to “make her an offer” on a Brexit deal, prompting her to reply that it was up to Mrs May to say what she wanted, which the prime minister was unable to do.
Former cabinet ministers urged MPs not to trigger a contest on the eve of the most crucial phase of Brexit negotiations.
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The former culture secretary John Whittingdale gave public voice to a growing view among Tory backbenchers and ministers that Mrs May should quit once the trade negotiations are complete this October. “Give her the opportunity to negotiate the best deal we have. Let’s see what comes out of that. We can then address issues of leadership after that,” he said.
A minister said that Mrs May could count on remaining in No 10 only “one month at a time”. Another member of the government said: “She’s got until October. Once the outline of a deal is in place and is being ratified around Europe, that’s a natural time for a change.” Nick Timothy, the prime minister’s former chief of staff, took aim at a key plank of her political strategy, saying her new-found interest in the environment revealed “strategic confusion”. He also echoed Boris Johnson’s call for more cash for the NHS, telling a meeting organised by the Resolution Foundation think tank: “It feels increasingly clear that the country is tired of austerity . . . and the public services are starting to feel the strain a little bit. While the NHS needs reform it also needs more money.”
Tory MPs are warning of two flashpoints in May and October. “Beware the ides of May,” one figure said amid fears about local elections in London.
