There is a dirty little secret at the heart of this Scottish parliamentary election that all those taking part in it know but none dares to reveal to you, the poor, bloody voter. The secret is this: the result matters much less than all the parties want you to think it does.
For we already know that the SNP will win another thumping victory and that Nicola Sturgeon will remain first minister. The rest is detail, and while some of the details may prove interesting they will not materially change the meaning of this election.
The big secret is also an open one: there will not be a referendum in the next two years, no matter how much or how often anyone tries to pretend there will be. There are at least two good reasons for thinking this. The first and lesser of these is that the coronavirus emergency has some way to run. No decent prospectus for independence may be presented until such time as a post-virus landscape is visible.
The second, and rather greater, reason there will be no referendum is simpler. It is not in anyone’s interests for there to be another independence plebiscite on anything like the timescale promised — or threatened — in this fantastical, land-of-make-believe, election campaign. The reason for that is also simple. Neither side can afford to lose a referendum and, since the outcome of any such enterprise cannot be hazarded, neither the SNP nor the British government can sensibly commit themselves to a battle they cannot be confident of winning.
To put it another way, there will be another referendum if, one day, a significant majority of voters make it clear they wish one. As matters stand, only about half the country wishes for another referendum any time soon. Moreover, present opinion polling suggests that the outcome is much too close to predict with any confidence. Despite the advances made by the nationalists in the five slow years since the Brexit vote, the conditions for another poll have not yet been met.
Advertisement
As she has reminded us recently, unlike her predecessor the first minister does not relish a betting coup. She prefers to play the percentages. That means a referendum should only take place when it is odds-on likely to produce the result that she wants. For to lose once is a misfortune; to do so twice would be a calamity.
Time may be on the nationalists’ side. Opinion polling and demographic trends certainly suggest as much. Two thirds of voters under 40 now say they favour independence. Perhaps they will change their minds, but one should not assume they will. It seems quite clear to me that if independence must happen, it would be better for a referendum to confirm a clear and pre-existing sentiment in its favour than to decide the outcome on odds no better than those offered by the toss of a coin. In such a scenario, Scotland would have already made up its mind and the referendum would be not much more than the rubber stamp confirming this.
That time is not yet upon us. From which you might think that this would actually be the moment for the UK government to gamble itself and agree to a referendum. Some government ministers in London seem to think that this may be the only way out of the predicament in which they, and Unionism, find themselves.
“I don’t see how we keep saying no for ever” one senior minister told The Sunday Times last weekend. “The time to do it would be in the middle of economic chaos, not when it’s all looking rosy”.
Hark at the grimness of this offer, though: “Everything is really shit, isn’t it? Now just imagine how much worse it would be if you voted Yes.” Even if true, I am not convinced that this would be a persuasive argument.
Advertisement
However, this line of thinking illuminates a certain impatience evident within some Tory circles south of the border. The Jocks are always revolting and putting up
with them is an increasingly
tedious business. Time, then, for them to put-up or shut-up. Either way, we cannot be expected to endure much more of this. It is certainly a thought, though not a good one. For here, too, the risks of losing a referendum on independence are so great that even a gambling prime minister must think twice before pressing the nuclear button. Blowing everything up to discover what might happen next is not the cleverest policy. The risk of disaster is too great; Boris Johnson can only win the game by refusing to play the game at all.
Hence, for the time being, there is a lot of huffing and puffing and plenty of parade ground action but no real preparation, on either side, for the realities of a referendum campaign. Each pretends that it may be around the corner but for as long as Scotland rests in a state of uneasy 50-50 equilibrium, neither side may actually force a referendum. The cost of defeat must be measured against the likelihood of victory, and that makes a referendum on these terms, right now, a risk too far.
In time, circumstances may change, but for now at least both the Tories and the SNP conspire to pretend this election might spawn a referendum when neither really thinks it will. Zealots on either side must thirst for some action, but wiser birds appreciate that this is a constitutional Cold War, not yet a hot one.
