In his state visit to Washington, the first by a Japanese prime minister since 2015, Fumio Kishida will impress on President Biden his country’s readiness to join the United States in seeking to contain Chinese expansionist aims in Asia and deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. He will therefore give eager endorsement to proposals that Japan should be closely associated with the new trilateral Aukus defence treaty, which binds America, Britain and Australia in providing Australia with nuclear submarines. Joining the three western allies in reinforcing security in East Asia is of enormous strategic importance for Japan — the biggest upgrade in Tokyo’s relations with America since the signing of their mutual defence treaty in 1960.
It is premature to speak already of “Jaukus”. What the three western partners propose is that Japan become an associate partner in what is called “pillar two” of the 2021 pact. This focuses on sharing advanced technology, ranging from artificial intelligence and quantum computing to undersea capabilities and hypersonic weapons. The aim is to engage Japan’s resources, especially its advanced technological industrial base, while ensuring that Japan does much more to guard secret information and protect sensitive data. Already Mr Kishida’s government has announced that it is to create a 20,000-strong cyber-security force and introduce legislation to assure the US that classified information would not be compromised.
The underlying and unspoken aim seems to be that the Aukus treaty should not be seen just as a western attempt to deter Beijing’s aggression but should include a significant Asian nation in guaranteeing Asian security. It could be seen as the prototype of a regional security treaty, along the lines of Nato in the West, to contain China.
That is indeed how China sees it. Unsurprisingly, it has denounced Aukus and the proposal to bring in Japan, saying it was “gravely concerned” about a plan that was “stoking bloc confrontation”. The inclusion of Japan is particularly neuralgic for Beijing, which believes its former enemy has never accepted responsibility or properly atoned for its atrocities in China before and during the Second World War.
The need to deter China from invading Taiwan is vital not only to Japan, which would find its southern sea lanes to the outside world blocked, but also to other nearby countries. China’s regional neighbours are increasingly angered by its claim to hegemony over all of the South China Sea and its physical attempts to consolidate its expansionism with military installations on reefs and artificial islands. None is more worried than the Philippines. It is no coincidence that President Marcos will join Mr Kishida and President Biden in a joint summit to underline their mutual interests.
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Mr Kishida’s government is suffering a slump in opinion polls at the moment, due largely to economic headwinds. A clear foreign policy gain and a symbolic strengthening of Japan’s ties with the US and the West in general would boost his authority and popularity. It was perhaps premature for Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan and former chief of staff to President Obama, to announce that a deal with Aukus had been done. But given the rapid rise in Japanese defence spending, worries over North Korea and the consequent transformation of Japan’s once pacifist constitution, Tokyo will do its best to join its allies in giving meaningful support to deterring China.
