It’s a mark of how far Boris Johnson’s authority has sunk that despite a large parliamentary majority, he is likely to have to rely on Labour votes this week to implement new coronavirus restrictions. In the midst of a public health crisis, the prime minister is so distrusted by his own MPs that he can no longer rely on their support for the relatively modest measures that government scientific advisers say are essential to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed by a new wave of infections driven by the Omicron variant. This refusal by Tory MPs to exercise responsibility partly reflects the extent to which an increasingly radicalised party has become hostile to evidence and expertise. But it also reflects the extent to which Mr Johnson’s conduct has cost him the benefit of the doubt, not least over the timing of these measures.
As this newspaper noted last week, doubts about the prime minister’s honesty are starting to have real world consequences on multiple fronts. Those doubts will hardly have been eased by new pictures of Mr Johnson hosting a Christmas quiz days before the Downing Street party last December that the prime minister and other ministers and officials have spent the past three weeks denying ever happened. The fact that Mr Johnson was reading the questions from his office is no defence if large numbers of staff were gathered in rooms elsewhere in the building. Indeed Mr Johnson was himself in a room with two other people at what was clearly not a business meeting. As Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, said yesterday, it appears as if the prime minister broke Covid rules.
That will of course be for the investigation that Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, is leading to establish. Given that this investigation is now set to examine the conduct of both his own boss and his direct staff, it was all the more important for the sake of his own reputation as well as the integrity of the wider civil service that he delegate the fact- finding to a senior independent figure. Another whitewash, similar to Lord Geidt’s investigation into the funding of the refurbishment of the Downing Street flat, would only further undermine public trust in the government.
The broader question is what Mr Johnson can do himself to restore the trust which has been damaged not just by the string of recent sleaze scandals but also doubts over his competence and a sense that the government is adrift. Any attempt to rebuild trust must start with his own chaotic, faction-ridden Downing Street operation which is patently incapable of providing the prime minister with robust advice. Since he ejected the flawed but effective Dominic Cummings-led Vote Leave operation along with most of those who worked with him when he was mayor of London, the prime minister has surrounded himself with squabbling courtiers. What’s missing is anyone of any stature to grip the operation. To improve the quality of decision-making, Mr Johnson should also act on the advice of Lord Hague of Richmond in this newspaper last month and instigate daily meetings with an inner core of senior cabinet ministers.
Yet there are two reasons to be sceptical that Mr Johnson will act on such suggestions. The first is that given the fates that have befallen previous advisers it is not clear that there would be a long list of high-calibre candidates to join his dysfunctional court. The second is that Mr Johnson appears to relish the chaos, even telling Mr Cummings “the chaos means everyone will look to me as the man in charge”. Seen through the narrow prism of his own fortunes, Mr Johnson may be right. But voters may have other ideas. An early test will come in this week’s North Shropshire by-election, the seat held by the disgraced Conservative MP Owen Paterson. A defeat in this usually impregnable Tory stronghold would send a powerful signal that the public is losing patience with a prime minister who appears unwilling or unable to do his job.