In the build-up to this week’s Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow, Boris Johnson set out four priorities which he repeated like a mantra at every opportunity: coal, cash, cars and trees. On one of those at least, the prime minister can now point to a clear success. Today more than 100 countries signed the inelegantly named Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use committing themselves to a target of ending global deforestation by 2030 while governments and private companies promised to provide $19 billion to the effort. A similar declaration in 2014 had attracted only 40 signatures. The significance of the latest breakthrough is that it was signed by Brazil, China and Russia, three of the world’s biggest producers and consumers of deforestation-linked products.
There is no question that if this deforestation target is met it would play a meaningful role in reducing the pace of global warming. Land-clearing by humans, largely to make way for growing agricultural products such as palm oil, soy and beef, accounts for almost a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions. Between 2001 and 2020, a total of 411 million hectares of tree cover was lost globally, a 10 per cent reduction. In this context, the pledge by President Bolsonaro to end illegal deforestation in Brazil is particularly welcome. If followed by decisive action, this could prove a turning point in saving the Amazon rainforest. Promises of European aid to halt deforestation in Congo, where the pace of land clearing has more than doubled in recent years, is also important. On present trends, the entire primary Congolese rainforest is set to disappear by the end of the century.
Nor was the deforestation pledge the only breakthrough in Glasgow today. Also welcome was a US and European Union-brokered deal signed by over 100 countries to cut global methane emissions by 30 per cent by the end of this decade. While global attention is rightly focused on carbon dioxide as the biggest source of greenhouse gasses, methane has accounted for roughly 30 per cent of global warming since the pre-industrial era, equivalent to 0.5C, and is proliferating faster than at any time since records began in the 1980s, according to the United Nations environment programme. Leading sources of increased methane emissions are landfill, oil and natural gas systems, and agriculture. Hitting the 30 per cent reduction target would reduce global warming by an estimated 0.2C by 2050.
Of course, there must be doubt whether either of these pledges will be met. After all, governments failed to deliver on the 2014 pledge to halve deforestation by 2020. Mr Bolsonaro’s commitment to halt the destruction of Brazil’s rainforest contrast with his cuts to funding for environmental protection. Meanwhile China, India and Russia, which are among the world’s biggest methane emitters, have yet to sign the methane pledge. Nor is it easy to see how either pledge can be met without persuading people in richer countries to eat less meat, given the role of livestock farming in both deforestation and methane emissions. Livestock farming uses 85 per cent of the land that feeds us but provides a third of our food. Plants use 15 per cent and give us two thirds of our food.
Success on trees should not obscure the fact that Cop26 looks unlikely to deliver on at least two of Mr Johnson’s four goals. Hopes of a deal to accelerate the phase-out of coal, the single biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, have been dashed by China’s refusal to make new commitments and India’s decision to achieve net zero only by 2070. And despite some new funding commitments yesterday, there is still a significant shortfall to the $100 billion a year long-promised by rich countries to help poorer countries cope with climate change. The reality is that unless and until this pledge is delivered, there must be some question whether any other deal will be honoured.
