British politics is a bit like British weather: subject to sudden unexpected change. Less than a month ago Sir Keir Starmer was master of all he surveyed. It was October 10, the day of his speech to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, and not even a glitter shower bestowed by a protester could spoil his big moment. When Sir Keir used his address to assert the right of Israel to defend itself after the massacre of 1,400 of its people a few days earlier he received a standing ovation. Proof, if needed, of his enormous personal authority, his ability to reshape radically a party that had been tarnished by allegations of antisemiticism.
But the inevitable consequences of that right to self-defence — the deaths of innocent Palestinians as well as culpable members of Hamas — were yet to unfold. It was straightforward to support Israel in the wake of the horrors of October 7, with details of the atrocities still coming to light. It was always likely to pose more of a political headache for the Labour leader with the onset of war. However, Sir Keir is right to stay the course, despite the rebellion engulfing his party’s ranks. Those in Labour calling for a ceasefire are effectively calling on Israel to surrender to Hamas, and therefore for yet more massacres of Israeli innocents. Hamas exists to kill Jews, and nothing else.
For Sir Keir the trouble started with an interview on LBC during which he appeared to endorse the Israelis’ severing of water and electricity supplies to more than two million Palestinians. He has since claimed that it was a delayed-action answer to a previous question, actually referring to the general principle of Israel’s right to a military response. But the damage was done and he now finds himself with a full-scale revolt involving 15 frontbenchers, about a third of his backbenchers, hundreds of councillors, the mayors of London and Manchester and the leader of Scottish Labour. They want an immediate ceasefire which will, presumably, be permanent.
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Sir Keir tried to square the circle in a speech at Chatham House on Tuesday. It was a lawyerly exercise in verbal tightrope walking. A ceasefire was, he said, “not the correct position for now”. It would leave Hamas in existence as a viable fighting force and embolden it to commit more violence in future. However, pauses in fighting for “clear humanitarian purposes” were right. His tone towards the Labour rebels was emollient. He understood their pain. He had no choice. In political uprisings there is safety in numbers. Sir Keir is not facing a bunch of disgruntled Corbynites. This is the core of the Labour Party.
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Labour’s sympathy for the Palestinian cause runs deep. And that sympathy is informed by political expediency. The British Muslim vote is vital to Labour. In 2017, 87 per cent of Muslims voted for the party. Among voters of Bangladeshi and Pakistani heritage, the vast majority of British Muslims, support was above 90 per cent. The concentration of Muslim voters in relatively few constituencies means they exercise a disproportionate effect in electing MPs. A Labour leader ignores this at his peril. In 2012 George Galloway successfully exploited discontent with Labour in the Muslim community in the safe Labour constituency of Bradford West and seized it in a by-election.
Sir Keir will be hoping for an end to the fighting in Gaza as soon as possible, for political as well as humanitarian reasons. Labour politicians can go on demanding a ceasefire in Gaza but it will happen only when Israel, which suffered the most grievous of assaults, has achieved its goal, or the United States withdraws its support for the operation (and possibly not even then). The row in Labour is performative. If Sir Keir caves, he will be wrong as well as damaged, with the likelihood of more revolts in future. He must stand firm, take the heat and await change in the political weather. Wars can take a long time to be won.
