The Speaker of the House of Representatives is one of the most powerful offices under the American constitution. The position ranks third in the US political hierarchy, coming directly after the president and the vice-president. Yet for the past three weeks that office was vacant, after the previous incumbent, Kevin McCarthy, was unceremoniously ousted by a mutiny within his own Republican ranks. It took weeks of bickering, ideological argument and the rejection of three nominees before the House finally settled on the election of Mike Johnson, a congressman little known to the outside world or indeed to most Americans, and with no experience of having headed a congressional committee or played a key role in legislation.
Mr Johnson promised that under his leadership the Republicans were “ready to govern” and that the House would be run “like a well-oiled machine”. It is a noble aspiration but one unlikely to succeed amid the fractious politics of today’s Republican Party. No Speaker has ever been ousted before, and the bitterness of the ideological divisions that sank Mr McCarthy — just as he had attempted to agree a budget with the Democratic minority — and the subsequent wrangling over who could outdo whom in efforts to declare undying loyalty to Donald Trump was plain to see.
Mr Johnson certainly had Mr Trump’s blessing and shares many of his ideological convictions: he is a Christian conservative who opposes abortion and same-sex marriage and led a failed legal challenge in Congress to overturn the result of the 2020 election. He was finally elected, after the failure of more senior congressmen — such as Tom Emmer, the House majority whip, or Jim Jordan, the Trump loyalist whose bullying manner antagonised many fellow Republicans — because he had fewer apparent enemies in congressional politics. But that will not necessarily make him more conciliatory or more ready to accept the inevitable compromises involved in legislation.
The challenges will come immediately. Without a Speaker, no legislation can be passed. For the past three weeks Congress has been paralysed, unable even to consider the $106 billion spending package the Biden administration wants approved for aid to Ukraine and Israel. Those colossal sums are crucial if the US is to have any chance of helping Kyiv to relaunch its stalling counteroffensive or of giving Israel the kind of emergency backing that most Americans favour — and which would give Washington further leverage over Israel’s promised retaliation against Hamas. Many Republicans, however, strongly oppose more help for Ukraine. If they vote down the bill’s $60 billion, Kyiv has little realistic chance of changing the battlefield stalemate with Russia. This is just one struggle looming in a House so closely divided, with a Republican majority of only 221-212.
The House must also approve new funding legislation before November 17 or see the oft-threatened government shutdown become a reality. That would not play well with voters, as even Republicans concede. But so partisan are some of the hardline Trump loyalists that they would prefer to back any move that wrecks Mr Biden’s proposals, even at the cost of coherent government. Some are also pressing the new Speaker to continue impeachment proceedings against Mr Biden and other administration officials.
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Mr Johnson will have to learn fast how to swim in such dangerous waters. He must also understand the full responsibilities of Congress. Partisan squabbling helps no one except Mr Trump, and could wreck legislation essential to keep the economy on track and America’s global role intact. Young, inexperienced and catapulted into a job he did not envisage, Mr Johnson has little time to acclimatize to a position that can help to determine the direction of America’s economy and the strength of its influence abroad.
