The coronavirus crisis may be far from over, but some semblance of greater normality has been made possible by vaccines and protective measures. Yet the world as it will be, beyond the pandemic, is not the same as the one that prevailed before. Evidence of this was provided by a prediction yesterday by Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, that Britons would need to be vaccinated “for ever more” if they wished to travel abroad.
This may well be true, nor should anyone cavil at another nation’s right to make its own border decisions. The successful national vaccination campaign has provided a route out of the crisis. The task for government should be to encourage take-up of the vaccine by everyone who is medically able to have it. It is reasonable to require vaccinations for some workers, in the health service and the care sector, who have direct contact with vulnerable people. And a requirement for vaccination to go abroad may prove a valuable inducement to younger people. The greater the realisation that this is true, the quicker will be the attainment of herd immunity by voluntary means. That would be a great prize in a democratic society.
More than 38 million people in the United Kingdom have been fully vaccinated. That amounts to about 58 per cent of the population. It is an impressive achievement but it does not mean the risk of infection with Covid-19 has been dispelled. On the contrary, with a novel coronavirus that evolves rapidly and with variant strains, it is not yet clear how far vaccines can eliminate transmissibility or how long immunity will last. Even on the best-case assumptions, the current rate of vaccination is not enough. Herd immunity is achieved when the incidence of a disease is reduced to the point where those people who are vulnerable are never exposed to it. Attaining this threshold protects those who, for whatever reason, are not vaccinated.
The vaccination campaign is nowhere close to yet achieving herd immunity, and it may prove an elusive goal. One factor weighing upon success is an observed reluctance among some younger people to get vaccinated. This is not because they have necessarily swallowed the absurd fantasies promulgated by antivax campaigners but because they do not necessarily see the point of it. They are willing to take their chance, aware that Covid-19 is a particular threat to older people, and for them is more a hazard comparable to flu.
This type of vaccine hesitancy ought not to be condemned but it is a problem. The government and the medical profession need to keep stressing that it is in young people’s own interests as well as for the public good that they get vaccinated. And while a free society cannot impose a compulsory “vaccine mandate”, private organisations in leisure and commerce are entitled to set their own policies. Clubs, bars, restaurants and airlines are likely to require evidence, whether by proof of vaccination or recent tests, for a long time to come that their customers are not infectious. And a forthcoming social media campaign will seek to convince those under 30 that they “will miss out on the good times” unless they get vaccinated.
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This is the right approach. If young people find that the route to attractive holiday destinations is barred unless and until they are double-jabbed that may well act as a non-coercive nudge to get it done. There is no harm in that. Requiring vaccine certification is not a draconian policy: it helps map our way out of a historic crisis of public health.
