The inauguration on Sunday of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the new president of Brazil, 20 years after the veteran leftwinger first held the post, comes at a moment of real pride and hope for his troubled country. It coincided with the removal of the body of Pelé, Brazil’s great sporting hero, to lie in state in the football stadium of his old club, Santos, where thousands are expected to file past to pay tribute. Thousands in Brasilia also cheered Lula, as the veteran 77-year-old politician is known, as he announced measures to fight poverty, invest in education, halt the destruction of the Amazon rainforest and rebuild a country that has been polarised by the divisive policies of Jair Bolsonaro, his defeated predecessor.
Some 17 heads of state, including the King of Spain, attended the inauguration in a show of support for Lula’s promised U-turn on the Amazon rainforest, an issue of vital importance far beyond Brazil’s borders. Several countries sent their environment ministers, including Britain, represented by Thérèse Coffey. They will be delighted by the announcement that the new administration will re-establish the Amazon fund for sustainable development in the rainforest, largely financed by Norway.
Lula won only the narrowest of victories, by less than 2 per cent of the vote. There had been fears that Mr Bolsonaro, who had claimed that the election would be marred by fraud, would refuse to quit or even attempt to call in the army in a bid to remain in power. In the end he did leave, with bad grace, refusing to concede defeat and flying to Florida to avoid the inauguration and so not handing over the traditional sash of office to his successor. His embittered followers, however, were still campaigning for him yesterday, with some fanatics discovered allegedly plotting terrorism.
That did not stop Lula from hinting that he would bring criminal cases against Mr Bolsonaro on charges of not providing enough vaccines for the Covid-19 pandemic, which he dismissed, and for loosening gun controls and cutting back welfare programmes for the poor. Lula insisted he did not “carry any spirit of revenge” against those he said sought to “subjugate the nation to their ideology.” But it is clear that he will have a much tougher job to assert himself now and carry out his reform programme, while satisfying the poor and the trade unions who supported him, than he did during his first two terms. These ended with his trial and imprisonment on charges of corruption, overturned later only on a technicality.
Brazil’s economic outlook is now much more challenging. Two decades ago the country was riding high on a global commodities boom. Since then Brazil has suffered two deep recessions that have increased poverty, hampered investment in health and education and set the poor against the rich. Lula is unlikely to enjoy the popularity he once knew and cannot count on getting his reform proposals through Congress, where Mr Bolsonaro still has strong support.
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It will be hard at this stage for Lula to lower expectations. A perception of weakness would be damaging, given his advanced age. A key member of the Brics group of big developing nations, Brazil has often appeared on the brink of a boom that has not happened. Cynics maintain that Brazil is the land of the future — and always will be. But for the environment, global security, and regional advance it is important that this time Lula succeed.
