HEATHER HUMPHREYS, the arts minister, got to her feet slowly and surveyed the depleted Fine Gael parliamentary party around her. “We’re good at government; we’re not that good at politics,” she sighed. More than a few of the 50-strong crowd nodded in agreement. It was Thursday afternoon, in the middle of a marathon six-hour parliamentary party meeting, and less than a week after a bruising election in which Fine Gael lost one-third of its 2011 complement of seats. The party was still reeling.
Water glasses were empty. Mobile-phone batteries were dying. People’s stomachs were audibly grumbling. Yet no one wanted to leave the room, even as members of the media lurked outside, waiting for an insight into what Fine Gael planned to do next.
As ministers took their turn to speak, it became clear that no one had any magic answers. Michael Noonan, the finance minister, spoke strongly about what the party shouldn’t do. It was imperative, said the Limerick TD, not to jeopardise Fine Gael’s 26% core vote by compromising on some of its policies, such as water charges, in an effort to win support from independents or small parties.
This approach was challenged immediately. Brendan Griffin, a Kerry TD, pointed out that Fine Gael was already down from 36% in the previous election. Where had that support gone, he asked. That was the key question.
Leo Varadkar, the health minister, said he was in favour of forming a government structure that could last five years. Many in the party unhappily took that to mean he wanted a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition.
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Paschal Donohoe, the transport minister, warned about the dangers of a Fine Gael-led minority government, saying the party would have all of the responsibility and none of the power.
As the options were bounced back and forth, one TD noted a sense of panic in the room. “On the face of it, everyone was calm and controlled, but no one had a plan,” he said. “Fianna Fail have us with our backs against a wall, and as far as I can see, we have no strategy to escape. Heather summed it up best. We are not good at politics.”
HOURS before Fine Gael convened their meeting, the new Fianna Fail parliamentary party had gathered at Leinster House. Michael McGrath, the party’s finance spokesman, was pleasantly surprised to find there were no seats left when he arrived. “It was a nice problem to have,” the Cork TD said. The party more than doubled its representation last week, ballooning to 44 TDs. “There is a general sense that Fianna Fail is back in business,” said Willie O’Dea, the veteran Limerick TD.
This appears to be true in more ways than just Dail representation. Within 48 hours of the election result, Fianna Fail launched into the kind of savvy politics that has been its hallmark in the past. On Monday night Micheál Martin, the party leader, released a statement demanding political reform “before discussions of the make-up of the next government advance”. This dominated the news cycle for 24 hours, and was warmly received by smaller parties and independents.
Fine Gael ministers watched with appalled admiration. “It made it look like Micheál was taking the leadership role, and that he cared about political reform, which plays well with the public, even though Fianna Fail did nothing about political reform for the past 30 years,” said one. “All you got from us was silence. There was a formal meeting of Fine Gael ministers on Tuesday morning, but no big plan came out of that. We were outmanoeuvred, to be honest.”
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A senior Fianna Fail figure cheerfully agreed with this assessment. “We won round one,” he said. “It’s not time to celebrate yet, though. It’s a 12-round match.”
Sources in both parties agree that there are four potential outcomes from last week’s general election: a Fine Gael-led minority government; a Fianna Fail-led minority government; a grand coalition of the two parties; or another general election. Fine Gael does not want to lead a government reliant on Fianna Fail for support. Martin’s colleagues know this. “They’d be mad to accept it — we’d have them over a barrel,” noted one Fianna Fail TD.
That will not stop Martin trying to force Fine Gael into accepting such an arrangement. The first step towards this is Fianna Fail insisting it cannot break its pre-election promise not to enter into coalition with Fine Gael. TDs such as Timmy Dooley and Barry Cowen publicly declared this last week.
Many of Martin’s TDs claimed they had been inundated with calls from Fianna Fail supporters since the election, looking for assurances that they would not do business with Fine Gael. “A lot of people are contacting me to make sure we won’t go into government with them,” said O’Dea. “I don’t know how I would face those people again, if we did go into coalition.”
By the time Fine Gael met on Thursday, Fianna Fail had developed a narrative that Kenny and his party were responsible for forming a government, and that a minority administration could be its only option. “Micheál is attempting to bully us into forming a minority government, but it’s not going to work,” declared one Fine Gael figure . “We are the largest party by only a few seats. He has an obligation to face up to his responsibility to form a government.”
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By Friday morning, the Fianna Fail leader seemed to be doing just that, with his camp briefing the media that Martin was working to secure enough support from independents and smaller parties to be elected taoiseach when the Dail resumes on Thursday. “It’s quite a clever move from Martin, looking like he is really trying to get into government,” said one Fine Gael minister. “It neutralises our political charge that he’s not interested in putting the country first.”
Fine Gael is also trying to put pressure on independents to show that they can make a minority government work. “If minority government does not look sufficiently stable, then you only have the grand coalition or a fresh election left,” said one TD.
“We’ll all be seen to be agonising over it and then in a few weeks we’ll get on with the only viable option: a grand coalition
Martin has appointed senior TDs Éamon Ó Cuív, Darragh O’Brien, Billy Kelleher and Dooley to woo votes from independents.
They will be going up against Fine Gael’s plenipotentiaries Micheal D’Arcy, Michael Creed and Seán Barrett, who will be working to secure support for Kenny.
Fine Gael figures profess themselves puzzled at claims from the Fianna Fail camp that Martin will get more votes than Kenny. “The figures don’t add up,” mused one. One Fianna Fail TD suggested that winning the vote wasn’t the goal. “We won’t get the numbers and Kenny will win,” he said. “Then any of the independents who have abstained will see that Kenny is the horse to back and they’ll pile in behind him. Then he’ll have all the support that’s available in the Dail and we’ll have none, so the ball is in his court for a minority government.”
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Fine Gael has another card to play in the battle to avoid this outcome, however. It is planning to insist Fianna Fail agrees to support at least two budgets, on the basis that fewer would lead to an unstable government. They know Martin cannot sign such a blank cheque. “We’ll insist on that, and some other things. They’ll refuse, we’ll all be seen to be agonising over it, and then in a few weeks we’ll get on to the only viable option: a grand coalition,” said one Fine Gael minister.
One Fianna Fail source said they have anticipated such a strategy, though. “That’s in the first chapter of Negotiating 101,” he said. “Fine Gael are only on the preface to the textbook. We have some lessons to teach them.”
Whatever the machinations, Fine Gael is determined not to get forced into a minority government. Both parties privately admit the real battle is likely to take place in about six weeks, around the possibility of entering coalition together. O’Dea insists he is “very much opposed” to such an outcome. “For one thing, we committed during the election not to enter into such a coalition,” he said. “Also, we would be opening the door to a Sinn Fein-led opposition. Some people might say we have to go into government with Fine Gael in the national interest. I believe the national interest is about more than just the next two years. And I believe a Sinn Fein-led opposition could lead to a hard-left government, and that would not be in the best interests of the country at all.”
Some Fine Gael strategists have begun wargaming what it might take to overcome such opposition. “Leadership of the opposition need not be such a major advantage if we take steps to make the Dail less gladiatorial,” said one figure. A key measure that is gaining support is a proposal, which is likely to be tabled on Thursday, to give speaking rights to any party or political grouping with six seats in the Dail. The current threshold is seven.
That change, which can be brought about by a simple show of hands after the election of the ceann comhairle, would increase the pool of people entitled to table private members’ legislation and challenge the taoiseach at leaders’ questions.
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Fine Gael is also considering making a public offer of a rotating taoiseach to Fianna Fail. “If we give them that and, say, an equal share of the ministries, and they still say no, that’s fine. We’ll have another election,” said one Fine Gael TD. “But it will be an election no one wants, and it will be clear to everyone it’s Fianna Fail’s fault.”
Some in Fianna Fail suggest they may not be opposed to such an arrangement, pointing out that Martin would probably take the role of taoiseach second, meaning he would hold the office in the run-in to the next general election. “In terms of spending power, there will not be a lot of extra money in the next two years,” said one Fianna Fail TD. “When we’d take the reins, probably in about 2019, that’s when there’d be money to actually do things.”
One TD said, for him, there was one big impediment to a grand coalition. “I could not support Enda Kenny as taoiseach,” he said. “The public don’t want another election, but they would not thank you for putting Enda back in either.”
After last weekend’s disastrous election outcome, that may no longer be one compromise too far for Fine Gael.