Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, a Hummer-driving Republican with his own Gulfstream jet, has delighted Democrats and environmentalists by promising to sign a Bill that will require his state to reduce its carbon emissions by a quarter over the next 14 years. In the process he has established himself as the leading voice in the US for action on climate change, which President Bush has so far refused to tackle with federal legislation. It has also confirmed California as the country’s most influential political laboratory and virtually guaranteed Mr Schwarzenegger’s own re-election in November. Not bad for one flourish of what is presumably a rather robust gubernatorial pen.
The smog that fills the Los Angeles basin for most of the year has long since served as a reproach to Californians for their extravagance, but it has never dented their confidence in shaping the future. The Golden State has pioneered bold anti-pollution measures before, with mixed success. This time, the fate of an agreement to drive greenhouse gas emissions down to their 1990 level by 2020 will depend on the ability of research-led business to produce the requisite clean new technologies, and the willingness of the biggest polluters — especially power generators — to invest in it.
If they do, history may smile on the somewhat optimistically-named Global Warming Solutions Act. But Mr Schwarzenegger has already sealed an astonishing comeback by endorsing it. Nine months ago, after stubbornly promoting a series of failed reforms tailored to his partisan base, his political future appeared terminal. He has since appointed Democrats to run his own staff and the state’s Environmental Protection Agency and steered decisively back towards the political centre, opening a 14-point lead over his nearest rival. A second term in office is now his to lose. If he wins, it will be thanks partly to a strategy of distancing himself from Mr Bush not just on climate change but also on such key domestic issues as stem-cell research, which he supports, and sending troops to guard the Mexican border, which he opposes.
Mr Schwarzenegger hopes his lead on carbon emissions will be “an example for other states and nations”. It will certainly be studied carefully. California’s relentless modernity, as well as its sheer size as the world’s eighth-largest economy, gives its “local” politics global significance — and if he is as serious about the environment as he says he is, George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, on a visit to Japan, should head there from Tokyo even at the cost of 1.2 extra tonnes of carbon.
The Governor could propose a system that will require carbon emissions from every significant industrial polluter to be measured, with cuts mandated and enforceable by 2012. Mr Bush believes such cuts cannot be achieved by legislation. The more popular Mr Schwarzenegger believes they cannot be achieved without it. They agree, however, on the central role of new technologies in which California hopes to lead the world. Its rivals should not bet against it.