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The market: Monster hype could be hiding a turkey

Auctions of the type being pushed by British firm Allsop at the Shelbourne Hotel on April 15 share much with the monster movie genre

I Married a Monster from Outer Space and Monster on the Campus were among the monster movies that packed American cinemas in the 1950s, when audiences were running scared of communists, flying saucers and babe-snatching gorillas with fishbowls on their heads.

Creature features relied on lurid trailers and posters, all too often depicting scenes that weren’t actually in the movie.

Monster auctions of the type being pushed by British firm Allsop at the Shelbourne Hotel on April 15 share much with this genre, not least the pre-show hype. “Half price homes!” shouted one newspaper, “Temple Bar flat for €80,000,” whispered another.

So we’ve already forgotten last year’s flop at the same plush theatre. The Real Estate Alliance’s Monster show promised a line-up of 100 homes at knockdown prices, with plenty of “stressed properties” and “deadly serious” vendors to keep us on the edge of our seats. Only homes offered at 20% or more below normal prices would feature. Despite a packed house, just 16 actually sold.

But let’s not prejudge because Allsop’s Monster Auctions have been credited with kick-starting the UK property market by clearing away stressed properties.

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Let’s look at their star line-up. How about that already famous “apartment for €80,000” in Temple Bar? First, it’s a studio apartment: one room and a bathroom. The Sunday Times Property Price Guide 2011 (based on valuations rather than asking prices), has a one-bed in D2 at €180,000. So if two rooms are €180k, one should be €90k, no? The Allsop disclosed reserve of €80,000 is good value, but nothing to wet your seat over.

Most are city apartments in secondary areas and often in the same block. A two-bed duplex in Galway city with a reserve of €70,000 sounds good until you see five more in the same building. The auctioneers haven’t been able to get in to view (why?) so cannot guarantee dimensions or layouts. They’re leaseholds not freeholds and we’re not told how long the leases have left to run. Is that €70,000 still sounding good?

Two four-bed bungalows by the Milltown golf course look better, reserved at €400,000 each — if they really are four bed and not three with attics. Grand, so €100k cheaper. But that’s only a reserve.

Just to confuse matters there are two reserves. The “listed” is the lowest published price at which the agent is guaranteed to sell. But some properties carry second undisclosed reserves that won’t be revealed until the last minute (boo!) but are guaranteed to be lower than the published reserve. Got that?

These hidden “true” reserves will decide whether this monster truly bites. How will the hammer house man from Blighty behave when he fails to raise a bid at his disclosed reserve? If he withdraws one property after another (as the last lot did) then we’ve got another serving of turkey at the Shelbourne.

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But if he careers on downwards — to slash and chop prices 20% and beyond the published reserves, then we’re in for a market prices scarefest with true bargains to make a private vendor’s hair stand on end. Will this show deliver? It might. But don’t hold your breath.