The Dublin media thinks the Irish government and the DUP are having a bust-up, yet the story in Belfast is how the DUP is playing it down. It’s a sign that taoiseach Leo Varadkar is taking north-south politics into new territory. His approach is unprecedented and nobody is sure what to make of it.
Yesterday, during his first trip to Northern Ireland as taoiseach, Varadkar attended a Pride event. This could be seen as a rebuke to the DUP for opposing same-sex marriage — an issue in Stormont talks and the focus of anger in Britain at the DUP-Tory deal.
Varadkar is not credited with acting skills, so his outspoken moments can have a disarming sincerity. There have been enough such moments to form an obvious pattern. The taoiseach has expressed his anger at Brexit and bluntly told the UK to design its own border. But this was no mercurial solo run. Simon Coveney, the minister for foreign affairs, picked a fight with the DUP two weeks ago over electronic customs solutions and has taken a specific stance against the DUP at the Stormont talks by backing a standalone Irish Language Act.
The rudest southern intrusion came from Fine Gael senator Neale Richmond. When DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds accused Varadkar of “politicking”, Richmond told the DUP to stop “whingeing” and mocked the unionists for being deluded about their influence in London.
Arlene Foster called Varadkar’s Brexit remarks “unhelpful” but only as a plea to work together. The unionist party’s general tone has been strangulated more in sorrow than in anger posturing. “DUP strangely silent over intervention,” noted a disappointed headline in the Irish News. Why the reticence? Because the DUP believes Fine Gael is planning an autumn general election and has decided to be tough on Brexit and tough on the causes of Brexit — the DUP included. Yet if there is another election, the DUP will want Fine Gael to win. In unionist thinking, Fine Gael is better than Fianna Fail, while a Fine Gael big enough not to need Sinn Fein would be the best outcome possible.
Advertisement
“The DUP feels conflicted about its new role as a Dail punchbag, lacking zeal for a fight
So the DUP is feeling conflicted about its new role as a Dail punchbag. Mainly, it just lacks the energy for a fight. Consider the multi-dimensional nightmare this small regional party finds itself in — propping up a hapless UK government, desperately trying to restore devolved government, and wrestling with Brexit’s momentous upheaval.
The DUP is no longer operating in provincial obscurity — it is carefully watched from Britain for ammunition to use against the Tories, especially on gay rights and Brexit. A cynic might suspect Varadkar of choosing his battles well.
Within Northern Ireland, the DUP has been trying to sound less strident after belatedly realising it pushed the nationalist community too far. Hitting back at Dublin would wreck what little progress it has made in that direction.
On Brexit, what would the DUP hit back at Dublin with? It has no concrete answers on how to deal with the border because those matters can only be resolved at Brussels and sovereign state level. Foster’s team are not playing in that league, and pretending otherwise would risk confirming Richmond’s jibes about their powerlessness.
The DUP is not as privately aghast at Brexit as Remainers hope. However, it knows how important a bespoke EU deal is to Northern Ireland and how crucial Dublin will be in getting that agreed and passed. One more reason not to fall out with the Irish government. How far we have come since Ian Paisley threw snowballs at Seán Lemass, the first taoiseach to visit Belfast, in 1965. Now a taoiseach is lobbing gritty balls of ice at the DUP — and all the unionists can do is duck.