The dossier: separating fact from fiction

The Cabinet Office published the 23-page document The process for withdrawing from the European Union yesterday, marking its first attempt to spell out life outside the EU. Here are some of the claims it makes, with analysis by The Times:

Claim: Brexit would exclude the UK from the European arrest warrant and access to the European criminal records information system.
Analysis: Membership of the EU does provide access to law enforcement and border agencies to information about wanted or missing people as well as speedy extradition. Fingerprints and DNA will be shared with other EU states from 2017. Leaving the EU would not prevent the UK trying to continue working with other EU states in law and order matters but the current arrangement would lapse without a new agreement.

Claim: The UK’s withdrawal from the EU would have a serious impact on farmers in the UK.
Analysis: Farmers rely on EU subsidies for 55 per cent of their income. The key question for them is whether the Treasury would match the £3 billion they receive each year from Brussels. George Eustice, the farming minister who supports Brexit, assured the National Farmers’ Union last week that “without a shadow of a doubt” subsidies would continue to be paid after leaving the EU. Meurig Raymond, the NFU president, has strong doubts, saying that the Treasury repeatedly questioned the value of farming subsidies.

Claim: UK farmers would face tariffs imposed by the EU on imports, making it harder to sell their produce.
Analysis: The EU market is critical for some farming sectors, with 38 per cent of all UK lamb exported to other EU countries. However, Britain imports twice as much food from other EU countries as it exports, suggesting that those countries would have more to lose than Britain from a tariff war.

Claim: Brexit would mean customs posts on the 300-mile border with the Republic of Ireland for checks on the movement of goods.
Analysis: Some Irish commentators have warned that border and passport controls would be an inevitable consequence of EU withdrawal.

Claim: If the UK left the EU there would be no certainty that the border would remain open at Gibraltar
Analysis: Vote Leave argue that the Schengen area includes a number of microstates — there are no border checks between the EU and Monaco, San Marino or Liechtenstein. Gibraltar could seek a similar deal.

Claim: Non-EU partners are already negotiating deals with the EU. Before starting negotiations with the UK they would be likely to want those deals to conclude.
Analysis: It is hard to know at this stage how non-EU countries would behave.

Claim: Health insurance, benefits and employment rights of the 2 million UK citizens living in Europe could be withdrawn if the UK left the EU.
Analysis: Eurosceptics argue that at least some of these benefits would remain and British citizens living in Europe could not be expelled. Anyone can claim state pension abroad as long as they have paid enough UK national insurance contributions to qualify. They also argue it is highly likely that healthcare costs would continue to be met.