THE history of weather forecasting is littered with spectacular blunders, but as yet no one has successfully sued a forecaster because the weather is deemed by courts to be an “act of God”.
The first newspaper forecasts appeared in The Times in 1861, but they soon attracted criticism. “The public has noticed with interest, and as we much fear, with some wicked amusement, that we now undertake every morning to prophesy the weather for the two days next to come,” said The Times. “We must, however, demand to be held free of any responsibility for the all too common failures which attend these prognostications.”
Probably the most spectacular blunder in weather forecasting preceded Germany’s invasion of Russia in 1941. The German meteorologists forecast a mild winter, but it turned out to be one of the worst in recorded history.
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The Met Office failed to forecast a vicious storm in August 1979 which wrecked the Fastnet yacht race off southwest Ireland, leading to 17 deaths.
Michael Fish made a notorious blunder on October 15, 1987, when he said there would be no storm that night. Hours later winds gusted to over 100mph causing 18 deaths and over a billion pounds of damage. The storm had tracked slightly further north than the Met Office (but not the French) had forecast, and it got a roasting.
On January 12, 2004, the Met Office predicted a “Great Storm” and issued dire warnings. The storm never materialised here — it hit northern France, the Low Countries and Germany.
In January this year, the forecasters were predicting snow for days and roads were heavily gritted. What wasn’t forecast were the heavy rains which washed away the salt. A freeze on January 28 brought the Midlands to a standstill, dubbed “Gritgate”, and traffic was jammed solid.