The two met at Leopardstown Races at McDowell’s invitation, but Parlon left the meeting angrily when an expected offer of the post of party president was “not on the table”. As the two camps failed to narrow their differences by telephone afterwards, it seemed likely that Parlon will seek a nomination to contest tomorrow.
A number of senior PD sources have indicated that should Parlon contest the election, Liz O’Donnell is willing to second his nomination. The Dublin South TD is understood to have told McDowell and Parlon that she would prefer if they could avoid a leadership election. She is not thought to have any interest in the post of party president.
One source close to the exchanges said: “Things are still very fluid. The leadership is not the foregone conclusion that everyone thinks.”
Another said: “McDowell arrived at the races with a Sunday newspaper photographer in tow. There was a handshake with Parlon and everything looked rosy until they began to talk.
“An offer that was made to Parlon about coming on board, that there would be the dream team of McDowell as leader and Parlon as president to bring everyone together, that was not being offered.”
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One senior PD source said that Senator Tom Morrissey, a prominent McDowell supporter, rang Parlon on Friday evening to invite him to a meeting with McDowell and suggested the president’s position would be offered at the meeting.
The meeting was supposed to take place on Friday evening, but was postponed until yesterday due to circumstances unrelated to the PD race.
O’Donnell and McDowell met in a Dublin hotel on Friday and had a “cordial and purposeful” discussion about the leadership race. O’Donnell and Parlon kept in phone contact over the past two days but did not meet.
Sources close to O’Donnell say she would prefer if the leadership was agreed without a contest but she will not prevent Parlon from contesting it if he is determined to do so. This could mean she will second Parlon’s nomination if he runs.
The post of party president was created to attract McDowell back into the PDs in 2002. It is a powerful position with responsibility for head office duties and staff, and with an organisational role. The question now arises whether McDowell would be comfortable with Parlon taking this powerful position while he is leader.
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One source said the justice minister offered the position to Parlon in June, when differences emerged between McDowell and Harney over the timing of her departure. Parlon is understood to have declined in an effort to avoid a leadership change before the general election. If Parlon does contest the election, he has an uphill battle. McDowell is believed to command the support of at least seven of the 13 parliamentary party members, a tally that would already give him nearly 22% of the overall vote. The parliamentary party has 40% of the vote in the election.
McDowell is also expected to poll very strongly in the second electoral college of the PDs’ three-tier system — the combined 15-strong national executive, 29 local authority members and three party trustees — a group which accounts for another 30% of the vote. A two-thirds showing there would give him another 20% of the overall poll.
Parlon is thought to be stronger with the wider membership of the party, which accounts for the final 30% of the vote. Almost one quarter of the 3,400 ordinary party members entitled to vote live in his Laois/Offaly constituency and that should give him a large chunk of the 30% of the vote decided by the national membership.
Contemplating a McDowell victory, one senior PD source indicated that the justice minister would ask Mary Harney to remain as minister for health until the next election to allow her to complete her health reforms and secure the renegotiation of the consultants’ contract.
There would be little change in relation to the party in government, the PD source said. McDowell did not believe the taoiseach was “aiming” at him when he talked of expecting the same commitment to a five-year term in office from the incoming PD leader. As a minister, he was already “signed up” to going the full term.
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But the justice minister would turn up the rhetoric against the main opposition parties — Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens in the run-in to the next election, and to focus on perceived weaknesses and contradictions in their economic policies in a public onslaught designed to increase his party’s profile before polling day.
There is no uplifting news for the PDs in the latest opinion poll published today, however. Fianna Fail and the PDs are both unchanged at 37% and 4% respectively, below the combined strength of the opposition. Fine Gael is up two points to 26% and Labour unchanged at 12%. The smaller parties were largely unchanged with the Greens at 5%, Sinn Fein down one at 8% and others down one to 8%.
Less than 24 hours after Harney’s surprise announcement, the range of options narrowed dramatically for Parlon and O’Donnell on Friday, when a sequence of high-profile party figures declared in McDowell’s favour. Tim O’Malley, first cousin of the party founder Des and second cousin of sitting TD Fiona, shocked the O’Donnell camp with his early declaration. O’Donnell had thought him a likely supporter. The junior health minister says he made his decision without any contact with McDowell.
“When Des stepped down [13 years ago], things happened that all of us must learn from,” Tim O’Malley said. “There was a lot of pressure and personal tension [around the Cox/Harney leadership battle]. There were huge problems in Munster with Pat Cox, and in Cork and Limerick.
“I still am very friendly with Pat Cox and I hugely admire the way he went on to prove himself and became president of the European parliament. But I did not want the same kind of thing to happen again with this leadership contest.”
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O’Malley was joined in support of McDowell by Noel Grealish, the Galway West TD. Significantly, Grealish’s statement was endorsed by his predecessor in Galway, Bobby Molloy, a PD grandee. Mairin Quill in Cork, another grandee, also endorsed McDowell in the Evening Echo.
Three of the five PD senators weighed in behind the justice minister: Tom Morrissey, a McDowell loyalist, Michael Brennan and Kate Walsh, two low-key figures in the party.
John Minihan, O’Donnell’s strongest supporter, and John Dardis, the party chairman and an opponent of McDowell in last June’s stand-off, stayed silent on their leadership preferences.
Fiona O’Malley declined to declare support though she is widely known as a backer of McDowell.
With Harney pledging to remain neutral, that narrowed to three — including Parlon and O’Donnell — the number of deputies outside the McDowell camp and therefore available to second a rival to him for the leadership contest.