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Super Tuesday: States to watch

Full Super Tuesday coverage with live results, analysis and blog

New Jersey

Will give the first indication of whether Obama’s momentum has genuinely damaged Clinton. She had wide lead here in delegate-rich (127) state neighbouring her home turf of New York just two weeks ago. Polls say Obama has now drawn level. A strong Obama showing here will point to wider problems for former First Lady.

New York

Second only to California in size and delegates (281), will be the first large contest to declare. Clinton must win big in her home state. Look for how well Obama does in black districts, and whether he can pick off more delegates than expected. McCain will also want to win well here.

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Georgia

Crucial for Mr Obama to dominate here. Like Alabama, a central part of his Super Tuesday strategy is to capitalise on the large black vote in these Southern states, and replicate his big win in South Carolina. Mitt Romney has to do well in the South, with support from conservatives, if he is to block McCain.

Missouri

Close race in both parties, and all candidates campaigned hard here. The ultimate bellwether in heart of America: Bible Belt, Yankee, rural, industrial, wealthy, big job losses. Picked every US president correctly for past 100 years (except 1956). 88 delegates for Democrats, 58 for Republicans.

Illinois

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Obama’s home state (and Clinton’s birthplace). Polls show Obama with huge lead. Like Clinton in New York, he has to win by a wide margin and take as many of its 185 delegates as possible. McCain expected to win its 70 Republican delegates.

Arizona

McCain should cruise his home state. But polls show the Democratic contest is tight - Clinton’s strength in the region has been undermined by Obama securing the key endorsement of Governor Janet Napoletano.

California

The greatest prize for both parties. Obama has surged up to level pegging with Clinton in recent days, pointing to a result where delegates - if not bragging rights - are evenly shared. Watch out for sharp diaparity in voting by racial group with blacks backing Obaman and Latinos voting for Clinton. The Republican contest may yet be closer than you might think.

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Massachusetts

Romney was governor here and should win Republican primary. Clinton has led polls for months, but the Obama’s endorsement form Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy has helped him get within striking distance. Both Obama and Clnton campaigned in the state yesterday.

Tennessee

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Clinton’s best chance of winning a Southern state outside Arkansas (where Bill was Governor). The Republican race appears close with Mike Huckabee showing strongly in his native South.

The following times are GMT:

12:00: Georgia

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01.00: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee

01:30: Arkansas

02:00 Arizona, New York

03:00 Utah, North Dakota*, Idaho*

04:00 California, New Mexico*, Minnesota*, Colorado*

05:00 Kansas*, Montana*

06:30 Alaska*

*Caucus times are estimated. West Virginia’s morning caucus should produce results before midnight.