Today will be one of the busiest in Adam Moreton’s working calendar: he must predict whether we will be eating burgers or stew this bank holiday weekend.
As the “weatherman” for Wm Morrison Supermarkets, he will be poring over weather charts and spreadsheets, hoping to ensure that, if we do fire up the barbecues, the resultant 200 per cent increase in demand for burgers can be met.
For supermarkets, correctly forecasting the weather can make the difference between a great August bank holiday trading and a disastrous one. Hot weather will entail customers flocking to buy charcoal, barbecue food and salad items, but an error in forecasting can result in millions of unhappy customers.
“I have a highly skilled team of 250 people with over 2,800 years’ combined experience with Morrisons,” Mr Moreton said. “What they need to do is try to predict demand really accurately three days in advance. We aim to use human experience rather than computers to tell us what should be going into our stores.”
By now, Mr Moreton, whose job title is head of fresh food demand planning, will have been studying the weather charts for this weekend for nearly two weeks but, because of the way Morrisons’ ordering operates, he is able to leave final decisions until three days out.
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“Trying to forecast the British weather is fraught with uncertainty — and this year has been especially challenging — but we can switch capacity on really quickly because we are a vertically integrated business with our own abattoirs and factories.”
It is not only the temperature that he will be keeping his eye on. “We need to look at the amount of rainfall and how many hours’ sunshine are expected, as well as the wind direction. Even at 22 degrees, if there is a wind coming from the north, it’s going to feel quite chilly.”
He will also be crunching historical trading figures and looking at the huge regional variations that the British summer can bring.
“We had one area where, recently, there was a month’s rainfall in a day, but if you went five miles down the road they hadn’t seen any rain at all.”
Warm sunny weather is the cue for all kinds of al fresco eating and, if the conditions are right, Mr Moreton will also bump up supplies of picnic fare, such as pies, sausage rolls and coleslaw. “We make our own pies with the meat that comes from our abattoirs, so we can change the raw product into whatever the market or the weather demands,” he said.
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There are other factors that influence what he decides to put in the chiller, and TV cooks are one of them. “Jamie Oliver gave quite a bit of publicity to belly of pork, which is a cheaper cut and something consumers wouldn’t normally have bought, but if you slow cook it, it’s fantastic. So we now make a pulled pork burger which is very popular.”
Mr Moreton started with Morrisons 21 years ago as a part-time shelf-stacker, aged 16. He has moved up the ranks, learning all there is to know about the supply and demand for fresh products, and gaining a couple of formal qualifications in business and logistics along the way.
Supermarkets are a 24-hour, seven-day operation, and he is on call around the clock. “I usually start at around 7.30am and finish work around 7.30 in the evening, but I’m pretty much contactable at any point. I’ve been known to get phone calls in the middle of the night — especially if somebody’s Christmas turkey order is at stake.”
With food waste a hot topic, there is a fine balance to be had between ensuring that the customers get what they want and controlling the surplus, and it is a crucial aspect of Mr Moreton’s role. “Seeing customers leave our shops with everything that is on their shopping list while ensuring that we keep waste to an absolute minimum is what my job is all about.”
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Facts and figures
Hours Mr Moreton works 12-hour days, but graduate trainees do a 40-hour week
£25,000 Starting salary for graduate trainees Qualifications Degree in business or logistics
Best bit “Watching how products react differently according to whatever the prevailing influences are”
Worst bit “Getting it wrong occasionally. There is a lot of pride in what we do and customers expect to get everything they want”