It all started with a botched energy subsidy. In January last year the Sinn Fein politician Martin McGuinness, then the deputy first minister of Northern Ireland, resigned in protest at the way that Arlene Foster, the unionist leader and first minister, had overseen the ballooning costs of a fiscal incentive for eco-friendly heating. One year, an election and countless missed deadlines later, dozens of wounds have been opened and Northern Ireland remains rudderless, governed by civil servants rather than politicians. Now even the Conservatives’ confidence and supply agreement with the unionists, on which Theresa May depends to govern, is being dragged into the mess.
The Conservatives’ compact with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is not on the brink of collapse. If Mrs Foster walked out on Mrs May, this would usher in a Labour minority government under Jeremy Corbyn or, worse, yet another general election campaign, which Labour would start in the lead. Mr Corbyn’s Republican sympathies make that prospect unappealing for the DUP, while his spendthrift programme for government makes it undesirable for any Conservative who cares about the future of the economy.
Yet even if the agreement is safe for now, it is fraying. In total some £1 billion is meant to flow from Westminster to Stormont under the deal, but Mrs May is understandably reluctant to hand over cash to the executive until politicians, accountable to their electorate, are back in charge. That is angering the DUP — a situation not helped by an ill-judged suggestion on Thursday by Karen Bradley, the new secretary of state for Northern Ireland, that the money is conditional on the resumption of power-sharing. She later had to clarify that it is not.
The DUP’s annoyance has serious consequences for the government’s ability to get its business through parliament from one day to the next. The Conservatives can only make any progress when the unionist MPs are physically in Westminster. As one Conservative told The Times, “we only have a majority for 36 hours a week”, and there are plenty of policy areas not covered by the deal.
Meanwhile the governance of Northern Ireland is grinding to a halt. The winter health crisis has gripped its hospitals, yet there are no politicians for voters to hold to account, nor to authorise expenditure or further recruitment. Plans to transform the health system altogether, first set out in 2016, are stalling because there are key strategic decisions to be made by ministers. The finance department is considering cuts to the justice system which could stoke huge political controversy and would normally be far beyond civil servants’ control, but officials do not know whether it is better to step beyond their brief or risk damaging the public finances and economy. Many infrastructure projects have been interrupted or postponed.
Advertisement
Though this stalemate was triggered by a row about energy, it has become about much more. Everything from gay marriage to the status of the Irish language, the impact of Brexit on the border, abortion rights and the political careers of individual leaders has been dredged up in a year of fruitless antagonism. Only a dramatic gesture will shift the dial now. Ms Bradley, effective though she may prove to be, does not have the clout for that. The prime minister might. She should host talks herself, and get ready to hold out some big carrots and wield some big sticks.