England have enjoyed a remarkable Test resurgence under Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes, but Australia have been winning in more customary fashion. They are top of the ICC rankings and the World Test Championship, and have just comprehensively beaten West Indies and South Africa at home.
The highlight of the 2023 summer will be an Ashes series in England, part two of an imposing overseas challenge for Australia after four Tests in India, which start on February 9. Here is how Pat Cummins’s side are shaping up ...
Australia’s last hurrah?
England have won none of their past 15 Tests in Australia, but on home soil they have held the whip hand. Australia have not won the Ashes outright in England since 2001, losing subsequent series 2-1, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-2 before retaining the trophy in 2019 via a 2-2 draw.
It has been a long wait for a series victory in England and many of the ageing tourists are unlikely to get another chance. Of those most likely to be involved, Cameron Green is the baby, at 23, and the only other players below 30 are Marnus Labuschagne (28), Travis Head and Cummins (both 29). David Warner and Usman Khawaja, the openers, are 36 and Nathan Lyon is 35. England’s XI for their most recent Test was four years younger on average — though James Anderson, 40, and Stuart Broad, 36, will make the team less juvenile.
Home comforts
Australia have lost only three Tests since the 2019 Ashes: against India in Melbourne and Brisbane during their 2-1 series defeat in 2020-21, and away to Sri Lanka in July. They have won 16 out of 23 matches in that time, mostly by large margins.
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It is notable that Australia have not travelled much since the 2019 Ashes, as 18 of the 23 Tests have been at home. Of the other eight nations who have played more than 20 Tests in that timeframe, all have had at least half of their matches away from home.
Australia’s only five matches overseas thus far were on tours to Pakistan and Sri Lanka this year, resulting in two wins, two draws and a loss. Nine Tests in India and England in 2023 provide a compelling opportunity to show they are not flat-track bullies.
Is Steve Smith still the main man?
Yes and no. Smith remains an excellent Test batsman, with a career average north of 60, but he is not the stupendous outlier that laid waste to bowling attacks between 2014 and 2019 — not because he has turned sour, but because Labuschagne has been so magnificent.
Since the 2019 Ashes, when Labuschagne was a concussion replacement for Smith after he was struck by a Jofra Archer bouncer, Labuschagne has scored 2,508 runs at 67.78, with a fifty almost once every other innings and a century every four.
Smith is Australia’s third-highest runscorer in that time, on 1,570. Smith did not register a century in the 2021-22 Ashes, but his record in the two previous series in England was phenomenal: he began the 2019 clash, on his return from his ball-tampering ban, with scores of 144, 142, 92, 211, 82 and 80.
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Smith is rare in being an Australian batsman whose record is brilliant at home (63.92) and away (57.57). The rest experience a pronounced drop-off when leaving home: Khawaja (51.13 to 39.67), Warner (58.95 to 34.01), Labuschagne (70.24 to 39.63) and Travis Head (56.96 to 23.76). Green and Alex Carey, who have played only five Tests outside Australia apiece, have better records away (43.16 and 53.60) than at home (32.17 and 33.18), where the top order does the job for them.
Other than Smith and Labuschagne, Australia’s batsmen struggled for runs in the 2019 series. Famously Warner managed 95 runs in ten innings, and was dismissed seven times by Broad.
Is Nathan Lyon still up to much?
Nathan Lyon has had ups and downs since the 2019 Ashes, but he is Australia’s leading wicket-taker since then with 95. He is one of four ever-presents in the 23 Tests, along with Labuschagne, Smith and Mitchell Starc.
Lyon endured an abject series against India, when he and Starc were unable to support the fine work of Josh Hazlewood and Cummins. Mitchell Swepson played four Tests in the sub-continent, and a second spinner is sure to play in India, but only injury would enable anyone to usurp Lyon as first-choice spinner.
Cummins and Hazlewood are proven performers at home and abroad, and their 49 wickets in the 2019 series came at 20.53. This will be a first major overseas test for their support bowlers, Scott Boland and Green. Boland has had a dream six Tests at home, taking figures of six for seven on debut against an England side who had forgotten which way round the bat goes, then taking on West Indies and South Africa, neither of whom is enjoying a golden age of batting.
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Fitness may play a part over the course of five Ashes Tests in 46 days. Hazlewood, who went mostly unused in the sub-continent, and Cummins missed the second Test against West Indies with a side strain and quadriceps injury respectively, and Green and Starc will miss the third Test against South Africa because of finger injuries. As the seam-bowling all-rounder, Green has been described as irreplaceable by Cummins.
