Present standings 3 Arsenal, 54; 4 Man Utd, 53; 5 Liverpool 51; 6 Tottenham 50; 7 Southampton 49
All that remains now is the rat race. Manchester United’s hopes of returning to the pinnacle of the Barclays Premier League dissipated long ago. On Monday night, the consolation prize of the FA Cup was prised from their grasp, too. There is just one trophy left for Louis van Gaal in his first season in England; the prize that is not a trophy at all — a place in the Champions League.
Even that will be a scrap, all teeth and claws, between United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and even, just, Southampton. Of all those sides, it is United who have the most to lose.
They have made it clear already that they intend to spend heavily again this summer — to the tune of £150 million or so — but without the lure of the Champions League that money will not stretch quite so far. Some players will cost more than they might have done. Others may not come at all.
It is inconceivable that Van Gaal will not be given a second season at Old Trafford, no matter what happens between now and May. What is at stake instead is what shape that second season takes, whether it is one in which they can exist in the present, aiming for a title, or whether it is like this one — a fight for chance of a better future.
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Arsenal
Before even attempting to assess how Arsenal will fare between now and the end of the season, it is worth pointing out that there were 12 days between the end-of-an-era defeat by Monaco in the first leg of the Champions League round-of-16 tie and the statement-of- intent victory at Old Trafford on Monday. No Barclays Premier League team shuttle quite as quickly between the brink of failure and the edge of success.
Still, though, it seems fair to say that at this point, it is Arsène Wenger’s side who have the momentum in the race for the Champions League. They have won seven of their past eight league matches, they have a wealth of attacking options and their remaining fixtures appear relatively kind. Liverpool and Chelsea visit the Emirates Stadium and there is just one troublesome trip, to Old Trafford in their penultimate game of the season. Arsenal should finish in the top four with something to spare. But then they are Arsenal, so it will not be quite that simple.
Fixtures West Ham United (H), Newcastle United (A), Liverpool (H), Burnley (A), Chelsea (H), Hull City (A), Swansea City (H), Manchester Utd (A), West Brom (H), Sunderland (H). Projected points 21/30 Total 75
Manchester United
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Since the derby defeat by Manchester City at the start of November, one maxim has been trotted out to describe United: only the very best teams master the art of winning while playing badly. If that adage is true, then this side are fit to be considered alongside Arrigo Sacchi’s AC Milan and Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.
Van Gaal’s team have, after all, lost only twice in the league since Bonfire Night, even if you would struggle to explain quite how they have done it. The brilliance of David De Gea would feature, so too the brawn of Marouane Fellaini. Now, though, comes the acid test: Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea and City are all on the horizon, Arsenal lurking just over it. Van Gaal has undoubtedly made United more resilient, but the suspicion is that it may not be enough. At some point, the team who win playing badly have to do so playing well.
Fixtures Tottenham Hotspur (H), Liverpool (A), Aston Villa (H), Man City (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (A), West Brom (H), Crystal Palace (A), Arsenal (H), Hull City (A) Projected points 17/30 Total 70
Liverpool
Liverpool have won more points in 2015 than any top-flight club. Both of Brendan Rodgers’s previous campaigns at Anfield have been marked by a considerable improvement after Christmas and, once again, Liverpool have clicked into gear in time for the finale. The question is whetherthey have left it too late this time.
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Their fixtures are not ideal — trips to both Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as the visit of United — while games away to West Bromwich Albion and Stoke City are hardly late-season strolls. Elimination from the Europa League, bitterly unwanted as it was, may prove a blessing. Liverpool’s goalless draw with Blackburn Rovers in the FA Cup quater-final served as a reminder that exertion brings with it fatigue. Rodgers’s side have done well to cut the gap, but they need to have some fire left if they are to cross it.
Fixtures Swansea City (A), Manchester United (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle United (H), Hull City (A), West Brom (A), QPR (H), Chelsea (A), Crystal Palace (H), Stoke City (A) Projected points 19/30 Total 70
Tottenham
Mauricio Pochettino may not have won quite so many admirers in his first season at Spurs as he did in his last at Southampton, but in its own way, his work this year — taking an unbalanced squad to a cup final and into the thick of the race for fourth — has been just as impressive.
His regret, perhaps, will be that his side could be in a far stronger position. Had they beaten the likes of West Brom, Newcastle United and Stoke at home, they would be sitting pretty before a run-in featuring both Manchester sides, Southampton and Everton. They could still snatch fourth place, of course, provided that they can shake off the old complacency and beat the likes of Leicester City and Tim Sherwood’s Aston Villa.
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Fixtures Manchester United (A), Leicester City (H), Burnley (A), Aston Villa (H), Newcastle United (A), Southampton (A), Man City (H), Stoke City (A), Hull City (H), Everton (A) Projected points 17/30 Total 67
Southampton
That Southampton can still be spoken of as contenders for fourth, given their budget and the upheaval of the summer, is testament to the work Ronald Koeman has done this season. It should also be a cause of celebration for fans of all those clubs who do not form part of the usual gang of six at the top of the Premier League.
Sadly for Koeman, the goals dried up just at the wrong time. Southampton have scored just twice in the league since January 17, so even with a decent run of fixtures in the final two months, they are likely to drop too many points to catch up. Everything will most likely come down to the big boys once again.
Fixtures Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Everton (A), Hull City (H), Stoke City (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), Sunderland (A), Leicester City (A), Aston Villa (H), Manchester City (A) Projected points 18/30 Total 67