For Wales to beat South Africa in the first of today’s compelling World Cup quarter-finals, it will require a performance of huge bravery. On paper, with the Wales back division severely hampered by injuries to ten players, the Springboks look too powerful. But if there is one team and one coach capable of producing that performance, then it is Wales under Warren Gatland.
South Africa have a very simple game plan, but that does not mean that it is not challenging. Their ball-carriers get over the gainline nearly every time they carry. They are really confrontational in the way they play, their driving play is a huge strength. Their shape in behind that forward platform gives them a lot of simple but effective options.
The maul
South Africa formed a specific attacking shape every time they drove a lineout in their pool win against Scotland. They roll the maul infield and lose a lot of defenders out towards the touchline, leaving them out of the game. If the defence overcommits at the front, they get chewed out and that would put the defensive line under massive pressure. The graphic shows the two defensive guards having to be drawn into trying to halt the maul.
Schalk Burger (No 6) stands flat with Damian de Allende (No 12) outside him and Handré Pollard (No 10) in behind Burger. From here they have a myriad of options.
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Schalk burger
The scrum half can give it to Burger, who can crash through the hole or, if the defender is tempted in to cover the flanker, he can fizz the pass across him to De Allende. One thing that is important about Burger is that while he is a brilliant carrier, he is also really quick over the ball. He could take the ball up, shift it on and then be latched on to the guy taking it into contact and first on the floor to secure quick ball.
JP Pietersen
Against Scotland, Burger stepped in to join the maul and JP Pietersen (No 14) moved in to Burger’s role. Scotland overcommitted in the maul, the South Africa scrum half broke out and held the first defender before putting Pietersen through the hole, which opened up because the inside centre marked his opposite number.
Handrè Pollard
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Fourie du Preez (No 9) can use Burger and De Allende as decoy runners, pull the pass in behind to Pollard, who has Pietersen coming off his wing and available on the inside ball.
Bryan Habana
If the defenders jam in and close off that gap, Du Preez can go in behind to Pollard and the Springboks can move it wide to Bryan Habana (No 11), who is one of the best finishers in the world and is looking to overtake Jonah Lomu’s World Cup tryscoring record.
The simplicity of the options available to South Africa is the key. They rely on the maul dragging defenders in, but the ball-carrier just has to decide whether to make a pass or carry. When moves are over complicated, players can choose the wrong option. There are no wrong options here, just good ones and better ones. That makes it so hard to stop.
Defending against the Boks
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The Springboks have big ball-carriers and they approach the breakdown with controlled violence, so Wales must try to halt the momentum of South Africa’s attacks. The best way to do that is to quell it, kill it at source, in the lineout and in the maul.
Scotland allowed South Africa to set up their driving maul very easily. Wales must look to challenge South Africa in the air, disrupt their ball or fall on to the arms of the lifters.
Wales must remain wise and not lose people to the front of the lineout — Scotland committed heavily there and were too easily spat out. Alun Wyn Jones, a warrior, and Luke Charteris, with his long reach, are very good at battling through the middle of the ball to get their hands on it.
Wales could also look to use the choke tackle, and it will be interesting to see whether they go down this route. They would lose a lot of ground if they do, but South Africa’s ball-carriers are very upright and if the Boks win the collision then Wales could look to get under them, keep the ball off the ground until a maul is called and then flop on it to win the turnover.