UNBEATEN and nearly everyone fit and firing — it was all going so well for Australia until Friday. Then came the news that Israel Folau and David Pocock will miss today’s game. I’m always nervous before big Australia matches but the absence of those two does not concern me hugely.
Whenever the Wallabies have lost a man at this World Cup, whoever has come in has been up to the task. Kurtley Beale replaces Folau today and we saw how effective he was when he came on against England. Ben McCalman takes Pocock’s place. Not quite a like-for-like replacement but McCalman’s more physical attributes may be well suited to the Scots’ challenge.
Australia are favourites for today’s game but this is knockout rugby in a World Cup. The pressure of a do-or-die fixture can have a funny effect. Twenty-four years ago, the Wallabies went into a quarter-final against Ireland. for which we too were favourites.
When you are in that situation you have to assert your superiority from the whistle. Not only does that translate into points but it has an effect on the morale of the underdogs. If you don’t achieve that ascendancy, your opponents gain belief and the script is ripped up.
I remember thinking throughout that we were the better side, yet the Irish were always in touch. With four minutes to go, they were ahead. Only a try at the death got us through.
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If I was the Scotland coach, Vern Cotter, how would I set about tearing up the script? His team must start better than they have done so far. They went behind early on against Samoa and the US and were 17 points down to the Springboks at half time.
One position where Scotland can target their opponents is at scrum-half, where the link between forwards and backs has not been as solid as they would like of late. Will Genia was arguably the world’s best No 9 for two years leading up to the 2013 Lions series, but he had a poor match in the decisive third Test against the tourists (as any scrum-half might behind a scrum going backwards). Injuries followed and though he is now over those he also had to contend with a struggling Queensland pack in this year’s Super 15.
The World Cup is no place to find your form but Australia are banking on his experience to get him through. So far, we have only seen glimpses of the old Genria. Take Bernard Foley’s second try against England. You could see Genia moving out left from the ruck and the English defence no doubt thinking that they had things under control. All of a sudden he pivots and changes the direction with the pass to Foley running the opposite line. No team ever won the World Cup without a scrum-half at the top of his game. Australia need more of this from Genia.
When he was out of the picture last year, it didn’t matter because Nick Phipps was firing, but he went off the boil in 2015. When Phipps came off the bench against England his passing was too inaccurate. He helped the Wallabies a huge amount, however, when they were on the ropes against Wales. His cover defence and organizing were critical in the 14-man rearguard action.
Like the Scotland sides of old, Vern Cotter’s men must disrupt the rucks, mauls, scrums and lineouts, because the last thing any scrum-half wants is to be behind a pack being knocked back and coughing up scrappy ball.
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On that front, they’ll be encouraged that hooker Ross Ford and lock Jonny Gray are set to be restored to the side after their appeals against three-week suspensions were upheld.
I used to think Scotland were good between the two 22s. When they got near the opposition tryline they seemed so desperate to score that they tried to force things and invariably made a mistake. When they were defending their line, they weren’t smart or tight enough to keep out opponents. Cotter has improved both fronts.
The Scots have won two of the past three encounters between these sides. Those wins were in wet conditions but they won’t get much help from the elements today. If they are to win, they must play the game of their lives.