Britain’s military and counterterrorism capability is to be reviewed amid concern that plans to buy warships, fighter jets and submarines are underfunded by up to £20 billion.
Mark Sedwill, the national security adviser, will oversee the work, which will complement a 2015 review of defence and the security and intelligence services. The announcement came as it emerged that the army has shrunk by 400 soldiers in the two months to the start of June because of recruitment and retention problems.
Ministry of Defence data showed that the number of full-time regular soldiers stood at 78,010, compared with 78,410 on April 1. This is almost 4,000 soldiers short of the official target.
The size of the forces may be a factor in Mr Sedwill’s review, though MoD sources emphasised that the work was a “refresh” exercise and not a new strategic defence and security review.
One said that it was required “in a world where the threat level has intensified. We also had Brexit and the currency fluctuation.” The pound has dropped in value against the dollar since the EU referendum in June last year. This has pushed up the cost in sterling of multibillion-pound procurement projects involving American suppliers, including the purchase of 138 F-35 Lightning II fast jets, nine maritime patrol aircraft and 50 Apache attack helicopters.
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Currency and other factors mean that the equipment programme is “overheated” by between £10 billion and £20 billion in the next decade, according to two senior defence sources.
This is on top of £20 billion in “efficiency savings” that the MoD and the armed forces are being required to make by 2026 to help to fund the equipment programme set out in the 2015 defence review.
“The MoD does not have a complete picture of how its costs behave, nor does it really know what the in-service support costs for new equipment such as the F-35 and the [new] aircraft carrier will be,” one of the sources said.
The Times reported last week that Royal Marine cold-weather training in Norway will be cut next year, although such skimping is not going to balance the books. The Cabinet Office, which announced the review, said that it would involve a number of government departments. They include the MoD, the Home Office, which oversees MI5, and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, which takes in MI6 and GCHQ.
“The national security capability review will include examination of the policy and plans which support implementation of the national security strategy, and help to ensure that investment in national security capabilities is as joined-up, effective and efficient as possible,” it said.
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The terrorism threat in the wake of the attacks in London and Manchester will inform the work, as will Britain’s altered foreign policy in the wake of the Brexit vote.
The last five-yearly strategic defence and security review was published in November 2015 alongside the national security strategy. Mr Sedwill’s work will be part of an annual report into their implementation
A spokesman for the MoD said: “We are committed to delivering over £7 billion of efficiency savings by 2021, with good progress made towards this target and all savings reinvested in defence.”